000 AGXX40 KNHC 311040 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 640 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. UPDATED WARNINGS SECTION GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING S AND SW FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST CONTINUES TO HOLD TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF E OF 91W WITH MAX SEAS TO 5 FT AS RECORDED BY BUOY OBSERVATIONS. THESE VALUES ARE IN VERY CLOSE IN LINE WITH THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 00 UTC LAST NIGHT. HURRICANE EARL PRESENTLY OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO PASS TO TRACK THE E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN. SW N ATLC... RESIDUAL LARGE NE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NE WATERS AS THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. BUOYS 41047 AND 41049 LOCATED AT 27N71W AND E OF OF AREA AT 27N63W RESPECTIVELY ARE SHOWING COMBINED SEA STATE OF 8 AND 9 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE S AND SW TO E OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE AS THEY THEN MIX IN WITH ADDITIONAL SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE EARL CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA OVER THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC EASTERN SEABOARD HAS BEGUN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION WITH THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 72W AS REPORTED BY BUOYS. HURRICANE EARL WAS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 19.9N 66.2W W AT 0500 UTC...OR ABOUT 105 MILES N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MOVING WNW AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER EXTEND OUTWARD FROM EARLY TO WITHIN 480 NM IN THE NE AND 330 IN THE NW QUADRANTS AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41046 AT 24N71W AND BUOY 41049 AT 27N63W. LONG PERIOD E AND SE SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED TO WELL NW OF THE EARL AS REPORTED BY BUOYS 41047 AT 27.5N71W AND 41046 AT 24N71W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LINGERING SWELLS LEFT BEHIND BY DANIELLE WITH THE ENTIRE COMBINED BATCH OF SWELLS TRAVELING NW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID 0300 UTC EARL IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO NEAR 22.6N 69.2W BY EARLY THIS EVENING...NEAR 24.6N 71.4W BY WED MORNING...THEN CONTINUE NW TO NEAR 26.9N 73.4W BY EARLY WED EVENING...AND TO JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.5N 75.0W BY EARLY THU EVENING. TROPICAL STORM FIONA FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF EARL IS CURRENTLY WELL SE OF THE AREA. LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID AT 0300 UT TRACKS FIONA NW TO JUST SE OF THE AREA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY WED EVENING...TO NEAR 25.0N 67.0W BY EARLY THU NIGHT... TO NEAR 28.0N 69.0W BY EARLY FRI NIGHT...AND TO 29.0N 69.5W BY EARLY SAT NIGHT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF SE SWELLS INTO THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUE NIGHT...AND PROPAGATES THEM NW TO ALMOST BLEND IN WITH THOSE LEFT BEHIND FROM EARL...BUT MAX VALUES RIGHT NOW DON'T APPEAR AS HIGH AS THOSE WITH EARL DUE FIONA FORECAST AS A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH HURRICANE EARL NOW LOCATED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 19.9N 66.2W AT 0500 UTC AND PULLING FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BEGIN TO ABATE TO RATHER LIGHT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY WHERE E WINDS OF 20 KT WERE NOTED IN AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT ...ARE NOTED DUE TO A LACK OF ATLC RIDGING. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH SAT. THE NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM ON THE HORIZON IS TROPICAL STORM FIONA LOCATED E OF THE AREA NEAR 15.1N 51.8W AT 0600 UTC MOVING W AT 20 KT. FIONA IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON....THEN TURN NW AND REACH NEAR 16.9N 57.7W EARLY TONIGHT...NEAR 18.4N 60.6W WED MORNING...NEAR 20.5N 63.2W EARLY WED NIGHT...THEN MOVE INTO THE FAR SE SW N ATLC LATE WED NIGHT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 0100 UTC CONFIRMED THE MINIMAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE NORTHER SEMICIRCLE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH FIONA WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. WARNINGS...UPDATED SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING E OF 77W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE