000 AGXX40 KNHC 300623 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT MON AUG 30 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES BUILDING S AND SW FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST HAS RESULTED IN TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA N OF ABOUT 25N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF HAVE REPORTED...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH SEAS OF 4-6 FT. SEAS VALUES ARE IN LINE WITH LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE LOUISIANA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE GULF. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS IN THOSE PORTIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUE MORNING. HURRICANE EARL PRESENTLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC IS FORECAST TO PASS TO THE E OF THE BAHAMAS WED...THEN MOVE TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC THU. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE ATLC RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT N LOSING ITS GRASP ON THE GULF ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN. SW N ATLC... RESIDUAL LARGE NE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE CONTINUE TO HAMPER THE FAR NE WATERS AS THEY SLOWLY SUBSIDE. BUOYS 41047 AND 41049 LOCATED AT 27N71W AND E OF OF AREA AT 27N63W RESPECTIVELY ARE SHOWING COMBINED SEA STATE OF 8 AND 9 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE S AND SW TO E OF CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH TUE AS THEY THEN MIX IN WITH ADDITIONAL SWELLS GENERATED BY HURRICANE EARL CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA OVER THE NW TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC EASTERN SEABOARD HAS BEGUN TO BUILD SOUTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTION WITH THE RESULTING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 72W AS REPORTED BY BUOYS. HURRICANE EARL WAS SE OF THE AREA AT 0600 UTC NEAR 18.1N 61.8W AT 0600 UTC. EARL IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE BASIN BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF ITS APPROACH. LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS ARE ALREADY IMPACTING THE FAR SE WATERS ...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVE ION ACROSS THE REST OF THE SE PORTION THROUGH TUE MORNING...AND SPREAD FURTHER NW AND N MIXING WITH THE LINGERING SWELLS LEFT BEHIND BY DANIELLE WITH THE ENTIRE BATCH OF SWELLS THEN CONTINUING TO PROPAGATE NW ACROSS THE MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS AS EARL TRACKS TO NEAR 23N68W BY TUE EVENING...TO NEAR 28N72W BY WED EVENING...AND TO N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N72W BY THU EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS...WITH THE EXCEPTION GULF OF HONDURAS WITH E 20 KT WINDS...DUE TO A LACK OF ATLC RIDGING WILL HOLD THROUGH TUE NIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN...BUT INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER THE EASTERN SECTION AND TROPICAL N ATLC WED THROUGH FRI AS HURRICANE EARL PULLS FURTHER AWAY FROM THESE WATERS. AT 0600 UTC...EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 61.8W OR ABOUT 35 MILES N OF BARBUDA MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH ALL EXPOSED ATLC PASSAGES IN THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH AT MOST WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM...CURRENTLY A TROPICAL LOW...IS E OF THE AREA NEAR 14N42W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON TUE...AND REACH THE NW WATERS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE WED INTO EARLY THU. THE ACTUAL FUTURE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...BUT INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS CAN ONCE AGAIN BE EXPECTED OVER THE WATERS OF THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC AS IT MOVES THROUGH. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 21N E OF 65W TODAY... BECOMING HURRICANE WARNING S OF 25N E OF 70W TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT AND E OF 74W WED THROUGH LATE THU... CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ086...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N E OF 65W... .AMZ087...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 16N W OF 59W... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE