000 AGXX40 KNHC 211844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT SAT AUG 21 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N86W WITH A RIDGE NW TO THE NW GULF...AND ANOTHER ONE E TO CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE S-SW NW OF THE HIGH...NW-N TO THE NE OF THE HIGH...NE-E TO THE SE OF THE HIGH AND SW-S WINDS OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. WINDS RANGE FROM 5-15 KT... WITH LIGHT TO NEAR CALM WINDS AT AND CLOSE TO THE HIGH CENTER AND 15-20 KT IN THE SW GULF. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO REVEAL THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 1-3 FT OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS...3-5 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN WATERS AND 4-7 FT IN THE SW GULF ZONE FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 90W-95W IN THE WAKE OF A TROPICAL WAVE JUST ABOUT TO MOVE INLAND MEXICO S OF 22N ALONG 97W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF IN ABOUT 24 HOURS ...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION INCREASING E-SE WINDS TO 15-20 KT THERE LATE TUE INTO WED. BY DAY 2 (MON) GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW MAY DROP SW FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF AND PERHAPS CONTINUE FURTHER SW THROUGH WED BEFORE DISSIPATING . THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. IT MAY WELL BE A TROUGH RATHER THAN A LOW. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO ATTAIN A BETTER FEEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO. SW N ATLC... A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N77W EXTENDS A RIDGE W TO ACROSS FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL PRETTY LIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE S-SW N OF THE RIDGE AND PRETTY MUCH VARIABLE 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE BUOYS 41046 AT 24N71W AND BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W ARE REPORTING LIGHT NE TO VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NNW NEAR 26N64W IS RESULTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 28N E OF 67W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME A RIDGE ALONG 28N MON THROUGH THU AS LOW PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST TUE WITH A FRONT TRAILING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS PRECEDED BY SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE FAR NE WATERS WED WITH WINDS WEAKENING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATER LATE WED AND THU. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY S OF 24N ALONG 67W WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN THROUGH MON...THEN WEAKEN AS MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SW WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE WAVE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF INCREASE IN ELY WINDS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS NOTED BY BUOY 42057 ARE OCCURRING S OF 17N AND W OF 80W. THESE WINDS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY SHORT FLUCTUATIONS TO LIGHTER SPEEDS. MAX SEAS THERE ARE EXPECTED TO BE OF 7 FT...SUBSIDING TO 5 FT LATE TUE THROUGH THU. ELY TRADES OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO BUILDING ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE FOUND N OF 12N...WHILE NE -E WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE S OF 12N. SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN...AND REACH THE VICINITY OF THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUN...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NE PORTION OF TROPICAL N ATLC MON INTO LATE TUE ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS IN N TO NE SWELLS WITH THE APPROACH OF LOW PRES...OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE