000 AGXX40 KNHC 201834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI AUG 20 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS W INTO THE AREA ALONG 27N. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WIND DIRECTION FROM THE SW N OF THE RIDGE IN RANGE OF 10-15 KT...AND SE-S TO THE S OF THE RIDGE ABOUT 10 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE WINDS ARE E-SE 15-20 KT E OF 93W AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. THE OBSERVATIONS ALSO REVEAL THAT SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT WITH THE LOWER END OF THE RANGE E OF 90W. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF WHERE SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS ADVANCING THROUGH THE EASTERN POTION OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND IS BRINGING THE INCREASE TO THE PRES GRADIENT E OF 93W WHERE WINDS ARE 15-20 KT. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH TUE... THEN SLIGHTLY LIFT N WED AS ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION INCREASING E-SE WINDS TO 15-20 KT THERE LATE TUE INTO WED. BY DAY 3 (MON) GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW MAY DROP SW FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF AND PERHAPS CONTINUE FURTHER SW THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING . THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO ATTAIN A BETTER FEEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO. SW N ATLC... A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 26N73W EXTENDS A RIDGE W TO S FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS REVEAL PRETTY LIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE S-SW N OF THE RIDGE AND PRETTY MUCH VARIABLE 5-10 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT E OF THE BAHAMAS WHERE BUOYS 41046 AT 24N71W AND BUOY 41043 AT 21N65W ARE REPORTING NE-E WINDS OF 5-10 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTING NNW NEAR 25N64W IS RESULTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 71W. NEAR 20N61W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT IS TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE S OF 27N AND E OF 66W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO ALONG 28N SAT THROUGH TUE...THEN SLIDE ESE TO E OF 70W BY WED AS THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT CLIPS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS PRECEDED BY SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS EARLY SAT...THEN MOVE ACROSS THOSE WATERS REACHING TO VICINITY OF SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA SUN FOLLOWED WITH PERHAPS ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN E-SE WINDS THROUGH MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... DEEP LAYERED E TO SE VERY MOIST FLOW W OF 79W IN THE WAKE OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS S OF 21N AND W OF 79W. WITHIN THIS AREA THE STRONG MID LEVEL WIND SURGE LEFT BEHIND THE WAVE IS CREATING E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT AS NOTED BY BUOYS 42056 AND 42057 AS WELL AS CONFIRMED BY AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1536 UTC THIS MORNING ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE SEA. THESE WINDS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH LATE MON...THEN TO S OF 20N W OF ABOUT 80W AND S OF 18N E OF 80W TUE AND WED...WITH MAX SEAS UP TO 7 FT NEAR GULF OF HONDURAS SUBSIDING TO 5 FT MON THROUGH WED. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO BUILDING ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE FOUND N OF 15N...WHILE VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-10 KT ARE S OF 15N. SEAS OF 3-5 FT PREVAIL OVER THESE WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA WILL ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN...AND REACH THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE MON INTO TUE. THIS WAVE MAY BE VERY ENERGETIC FIRING UP CONVECTION OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE MON INTO WED IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING LOW OR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE PRESENT OVER THE FAR E ATLC NEAR THE COAST OF AFRICA. WE ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE