000 AGXX40 KNHC 191837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE WEAK 1018 MB ATLC HIGH EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 24N89W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE SW IN RANGE OF 10-15 KT N OF 26N...AND GENERALLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT S OF 26N EXCEPT OVER THE FAE SE PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT. OBSERVED SEASTATE IS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING JUST S OF WESTERN CUBA AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT SOME NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 27N FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PORTION SAT...SHIFT N TO NEAR 26N BY SAT...THEN SHIFT BACK S TO 25N SUN AND MON. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE SW GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO LATE SAT. AS THE WAVE PASSES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT EXPECT E-SE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THEN SPREAD TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SW GULF BY SAT AS THE WAVE MOVES INLAND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT OVER THE SW GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT MON. BY DAY 4 (MON) GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW MAY DROP SW FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF AND PERHAPS CONTINUE FURTHER SW THROUGH TUE. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. WILL HAVE AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO ATTAIN A BETTER FEEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO. SW N ATLC... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N69W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO S FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS ALSO REVEALED PRETTY LIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE S-SW N OF THE RIDGE AND E-SE S OF THE W OF 74W...AND NE-E TO THE E OF 74W WHERE SPEEDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N61W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT IS TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE S OF 27N AND E OF 66W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO ALONG 28N SAT AND SUN...THEN WEAKEN MON AND TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALL NEAR 31N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE WATERS SAT...THEN DISSIPATE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN. ONLY A SUBTLE NE TO SE WINDS SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS MON...AND REACH TO VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA TUE BRINGING INCREASING E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THOSE WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AS MENTIONED EARLIER UNDER GULF OF MEXICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH W OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...DEEP LAYERED E TO SE FLOW N OF 18N IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN STRONG CNVTN NEAR AND BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE JAMAICA AREA NW TO THE W TIP OF CUBA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE IS ALSO BEING PULLED OFF OF COLOMBIA AND INTO THE SW GULF WHERE ACTIVE CNVTN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL SPREAD NW IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THROUGH SAT...THEN BE CONFINED TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15-20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO BUILDING ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE WATERS AND A WEAK AND BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE ALONG 54W/55W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION TONIGHT AND FRI A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH NEAR SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWING THIS FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED VERY CLOSE BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON. A MODEST LLVL WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TANDEM OF WAVES...BUT THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE VERY ENERGETIC AND KICK OFF VERY ACTIVE CNVTN SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT OR THIRD TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE TUE. WE ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 191837 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT THU AUG 19 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE WEAK 1018 MB ATLC HIGH EXTENDS SW TO NEAR 24N89W. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE SW IN RANGE OF 10-15 KT N OF 26N...AND GENERALLY VARIABLE 5-10 KT S OF 26N EXCEPT OVER THE FAE SE PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT. OBSERVED SEASTATE IS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS PASSING JUST S OF WESTERN CUBA AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT SOME NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT N TO NEAR 27N FRI NIGHT. ANOTHER WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PORTION SAT...SHIFT N TO NEAR 26N BY SAT...THEN SHIFT BACK S TO 25N SUN AND MON. THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE SW GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT AND INTO MAINLAND MEXICO LATE SAT. AS THE WAVE PASSES FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE SW GULF THROUGH FRI NIGHT EXPECT E-SE WINDS BEHIND THE WAVE TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT THEN SPREAD TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE SW GULF BY SAT AS THE WAVE MOVES INLAND. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 4-6 FT OVER THE SW GULF FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT MON. BY DAY 4 (MON) GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT A LOW MAY DROP SW FROM THE SE U.S. INTO THE FAR N CENTRAL GULF AND PERHAPS CONTINUE FURTHER SW THROUGH TUE. THIS SCENARIO IS STILL UNCERTAIN WITH RESPECT TO EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF THE LOW INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS. WILL AWAIT FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO ATTAIN A BETTER FEEL FOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO. SW N ATLC... A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N69W EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO S FLORIDA. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A FEW SHIP REPORTS ALSO REVEALED PRETTY LIGHT CONDITIONS OVER THIS AREA WITH WINDS FROM THE S-SW N OF THE RIDGE AND E-SE S OF THE W OF 74W...AND NE-E TO THE E OF 74W WHERE SPEEDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N61W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT IS TRIGGERING OFF SCATTERED TSTMS TO THE S OF 27N AND E OF 66W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT N TO ALONG 28N SAT AND SUN...THEN WEAKEN MON AND TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT STALL NEAR 31N. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE SE WATERS SAT...THEN DISSIPATE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN. ONLY A SUBTLE NE TO SE WINDS SHIFT IS EXPECTED WITH THE TROUGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS MON...AND REACH TO VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA TUE BRINGING INCREASING E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT THOSE WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AS MENTIONED EARLIER UNDER GULF OF MEXICO...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WILL PUSH W OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. UNTIL THEN...DEEP LAYERED E TO SE FLOW N OF 18N IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN STRONG CNVTN NEAR AND BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH THE STRONG MID LEVEL WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING FROM THE JAMAICA AREA NW TO THE W TIP OF CUBA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE BEHIND THE WAVE IS ALSO BEING PULLED OFF OF COLOMBIA AND INTO THE SW GULF WHERE ACTIVE CNVTN WILL ALSO CONTINUE TODAY. E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL SPREAD NW IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE THROUGH SAT...THEN BE CONFINED TO GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE...WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT. ELY TRADES WILL INCREASE BACK TO 15-20 KT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT INCREASES DUE TO BUILDING ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...NE-E WINDS OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE THE REGION WITH HIGH PRES LOCATED NW OF THE WATERS AND A WEAK AND BROAD LOW TO MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NE ALONG 54W/55W. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION TONIGHT AND FRI A WEAKENING TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE E CENTRAL ATLC WILL REACH NEAR SUN MORNING AND MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE FOLLOWING THIS FIRST WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED VERY CLOSE BEHIND THE FIRST WAVE AND MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN AFTERNOON. A MODEST LLVL WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TANDEM OF WAVES...BUT THE SECOND WAVE WILL BE VERY ENERGETIC AND KICK OFF VERY ACTIVE CNVTN SUN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF THE NEXT OR THIRD TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ATLC BY LATE TUE. WE ARE QUICKLY APPROACHING THE PEAK OF HURRICANE SEASON AND THIS SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE