000 AGXX40 KNHC 180749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ELONGATED LOW PRES AREA HAS LIFTED NW AND EXTENDS FROM EXTREME SE TX NE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SLY FLOW NOW COVERING MOST OF THE NRN GULF. OBS OFF OF THE SE LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE 15-18 KT RANGE WITH SEAS DOWN TO 3-4 FT. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NW GULF TODAY TO YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS...WHILE MODEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE BASIN EMBEDDED IN THE SLY LLVL STEERING FLOW WILL ADVECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THERE TOWARD THE N-NW. THE BERMUDA HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD MODESTLY W ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 25/26N TODAY THROUGH THU...PRODUCING 15 KT WINDS ACROSS FAR W AND NW PORTIONS. A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB THIS MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN THU NIGHT AND AID IN PROMOTING A LLVL WIND SURGE ACROSS S AND SW PORTIONS...WITH WINDS INCREASING 15-20 KT THU NIGHT AND FRI PROGRESSING NW INTO W CENTRAL PORTIONS SAT. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING SEA BREEZE ACROSS THE YUCATAN...WITH 20-25 KT WINDS BRIEFLY POSSIBLE THERE EACH EVENING. SW N ATLC... WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH HAS SHIFTED TO THE N BORDER OF THE AREA AND WILL MEANDER AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEXT 2 DAYS. HIGH PRES RIDGING W UNDERNEATH THIS FEATURE TODAY WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE TRADES ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE AREA AND INTO S FL AND THE NW BAHAMAS. AN ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS ATTM IS USHERING A LLVL WIND SURGE TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH SE PORTIONS AND INTO THE WATERS S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS WIND SURGE WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS CUBA AND THE WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU EVENING. A MID LEVEL WIND SURGE BEHIND THIS TROPICAL WAVE HAS IGNITED A BROAD AREA OF DEEP CNVTN ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NW AND INTO THE NW BAHAMAS THROUGH WED EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING...WHILE SHIFTING MODESTLY ACROSS S FL THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE AREA WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT TO MODERATE AND VARYING WITH WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS SCRAPING NW PORTIONS TO YIELD W TO W FLOW. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... ENERGETIC TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND CENTRAL CARIB IS MOVING MORE W-NW ACROSS N PORTIONS OF THE CARIB...WITH LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE SHIFTING W-NW BEHIND IT ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE WATERS BOTH TO THE N AND S. CNVTN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY ACTIVE AGAIN CONVECTIVELY NEXT 48 HOURS..MAINLY N OF 15N. SIMILAR SQUALLY WEATHER AS HAS OCCURRED ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO-HISPANIOLA AREA WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE...YIELDING WIND GUSTS 30-40 KT. AT THE SURFACE...A ZONE OF 20 KT TRADES WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE BASIN WITH THE WAVE WITH SMALL POCKETS TO 25 KT PARTICULARLY S AND SW OF HISPANIOLA. THIS WIND SURGE AND WEATHER WILL REACH THE NW CARIB THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE EXITING THE BASIN FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH BEHIND THIS WAVE. MODERATE NELY TRADES AND A GENERALLY STABLE SAL AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT 48 HOURS. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ACROSS THE ERN ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SECOND OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES...AND THEN NEXT APPROACHING W AFRICA...HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THESE SYSTEMS AS WE QUICKLY APPROACH THE PEAK OF THE SEASON. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING