000 AGXX40 KNHC 160742 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 342 AM EDT MON AUG 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1015 MB HIGH HAS SHIFTED INTO NW GULF AS ELONGATED LOW PRES AND OLD REMNANTS OF TD FIVE HAVE BEGUN TO SINK INTO THE FAR NE GULF. ELONGATED CYCLONIC ZONE CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL GA SW TO JUST OFF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI...WITH SURFACE OBS AND RADAR SUGGESTING A 1010 MB LOW OVER WATER ALONG 29.5N AND S OF ELGIN AFB. DEEP CNVTN SHIFTING S AND SW INTO THESE WATERS THIS EVENING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY PAST FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR THIS SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THIS LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING INTO COASTAL SE LOUISIANA AFTER 36 HOURS. EVEN THE PREVIOUSLY AGGRESSIVE GFS HAS BACK OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW...AND I WILL CAP OFF THE WINDS IN THE ERN SEMICIRCLE TO 20-25 KT AND SEAS 6-7 FT AS IT MOVES INLAND. AS THIS LOW THEN SHIFTS NW ACROSS LOUISIANA TUE EVENING AND NIGHT AND INTO E TEXAS WED...THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD WEAKLY W INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N AND OPEN UP SLY FLOW INTO THIS LOW...WITH STRONGEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT ACROSS THE N AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS. THE ATLC RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK YIELDING MODERATE SE TO S FLOW THAT MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT FAR W PORTIONS LATE FRI INTO SAT. SW N ATLC... UNUSUAL WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SNAKES ACROSS N AND NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH TWO LLVL VORTICES HAVING FORMED ALONG AND TO THE S PAST 48 HOURS. THE FRONTAL REMNANTS AND THESE LOWS WILL SHIFT NW IN TANDEM WITH THE ELONGATED LOW PRES ACROSS THE NE GULF DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...ALLOWING HIGH PRES TO BUILD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND THEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WED. THIS WILL BE AIDED BY A LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE ACCOMPANYING A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE ERN CARIB THIS MORNING. ELY TRADES WILL RETURN TO S PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TODAY AND INCREASE 15-20 KT LATE TONIGHT ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND THEN SPREAD W INTO THE SE BAHAMAS TUE...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT IN E SWELL BEHIND THIS MODEST SURGE. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT SHIFT SLIGHTLY N TO ALONG 27N LATER IN THE WEEK AND THEN WEAKEN THU THROUGH FRI AS A LARGE TUTT LOW MOVES TO ALONG 60W AND BREAKS THE SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE ATLC. IN ADDITION TO THIS WIND SURGE MOVING THROUGH FAR S PORTIONS OF THE AREA...A MID LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL KICK OFF SQUALLS AND STRONG TSTMS AS IT MOVES W-NW ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES THIS EVENING THROUGH WED. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND STEEP SEAS AS THE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THIS SOUTHERN CORRIDOR. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE ELY TRADES OFF OF COLOMBIA HAVE INCREASED PAST 24 HOURS PER AN EVENING ASCAT PASS...WITH WINDS AROUND 25 KT S OF 14N THERE. THIS OCCURRING BEHIND A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS 80W ATTM THAT WILL ENTER CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES OTHERWISE PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIB. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE E CARIB...WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SAL TRAILING THE WAVE... EXTENDING E TO THE NEXT WAVE NEAR 30W. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION WITH AN ASSOCIATED 25-30 KT WIND SURGE IS MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE MAIN TROUGH OF THE WAVE...AND IS ABOUT 7 DEGREES BEHIND. THIS FEATURE HAS BEGUN TO KICK OFF SCATTERED TSTMS JUST E OF 60W THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS IT MOVES WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND THEN THE GREATER ANTILLES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS MID LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL MOVE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT MODESTLY MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE...WITH CNVTN FIRING ALONG THE EDGE OF THE SAL LEADING TO STRONG SQUALLS AND TSTMS. THIS WEATHER WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF GALE FORCE...AND COMBINED WITH DIURNAL FORCING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...WILL AID IN STRONG TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND SEAS N OF 14N ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIB WILL BUILDING TO NEAR 20 KT AND 6-7 FT WITH AND BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FEATURE TODAY THROUGH TUE...AND THEN SPREAD AN AREA OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIB TUE EVENING THROUGH WED...WHERE SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 7-8 FT. SOME COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL WAVE TO BECOME WELL ORGANIZED ACROSS E CENTRAL ATLC BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AND IS IN LINE WITH CLIMATOLOGY. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING