000 AGXX40 KNHC 150752 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTENDS FROM OFF THE W CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA W-NW INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. THE ELONGATED LOW PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA THIS MORNING...WITH PRES GRADIENT TO THE S YIELDING SW TO W WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE FAR N CENTRAL AND NE GULF PER RECENT OBS AND SCATTEROMETER PASSES. SEA ACROSS THIS AREA HAVE CONTINUED TO DROP...NOW AT 2-3 FT. ELSEWHERE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH LIGHT WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS WITHIN THE RIDGE AND E TO SE WINDS 10-15 KT S AND SW SECTIONS...AND 15-20 KT ALONG THE N AND NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN WHERE SEAS WERE RUNNING 3-4 FT. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN NEXT 30 HOURS AS GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT LOW PRES INTO THE NE GULF COASTS MON MORNING THEN DRIFT IT W AND ACROSS SE LOUISIANA THROUGH TUE EVENING BEFORE TURNING NW AND COMPLETELY INLAND ACROSS SW LA TUE NIGHT-WED MORNING. GFS CONTINUES TO BE VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS LOW AND DEEPENS IT MON NIGHT INTO TUE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CANADIAN IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR AND A BIT FARTHER S IN TRAJECTORY WHILE REMAINDER OF MODELS HAVE SIMILAR MOTION BUT DO NOT SHOW NEAR THE STRENGTHENING. THIS LOW IS PERSISTING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH AND WILL MOVE SW THEN W WITHIN THE INNER PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER ANTICYCLONE AS IT MOVES OVER WATER. WE ARE MONITORING THIS SYSTEM DURING ITS EVOLUTION NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT STILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE ATTM UNTIL SOME DEFINITIVE IMPROVED STRUCTURE IS EVIDENT IN STLT OR RADAR. WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH 15-20 KT WINDS ON S AND SE QUADS OF THIS LOW AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF MON THROUGH TUE. SW N ATLC... WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM 31N61W TO 27N70W THEN ARCHED TOWARD THE NW AND AND THE SC COAST....WHILE A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY AT 28N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A GALE CENTER ANCHORING THIS FRONT NE OF BERMUDA AND ASSOCIATED NE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING MODERATE PERIOD SWELL THAT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT AND AFFECT THE ENTIRE AREA BY MON MORNING...WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 5 FT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE WATERS OF FLORIDA. WEAK FLOW CONTINUES SE OF THE FRONT S OF 27N...WHILE SWLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT WAS INDICATED BY EVENING SCATTEROMETER PASSES WITHIN 180 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N...WHERE WWIII FORECAST 5-8 FT SEAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SLIGHTLY FURTHER S OVERNIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AND MEANDERING TOWARD THE NW THROUGH TUE. A MODEST WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS CROSSED 50W OVERNIGHT WILL USHER 15 KT TRADES INTO SE PORTIONS MON...REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS MON NIGHT...WITH SEAS THERE BUILDING 5-6 FT. WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NE ATLC INTO THE BAHAMAS TUE-WED WILL HELP TO FORCE THE FRONTAL REMNANTS TO FAR NW PORTIONS AND ALLOW THE SE TRADES TO BUILD THROUGH THE BAHAMAS AND TO NEAR FAR SE FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK PRES GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN YIELDING BELOW NORMAL TRADES. MOISTURE TRAILING A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WAS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG TSTMS ACROSS THE NW CARIB THIS MORNING MAINLY W OF 82. A SECOND WEAK TROPICAL WAVE WAS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIB S OF 14N AND PRODUCING WEATHER MAINLY OVER COLOMBIA. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED WEATHER HAS ENTERED THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE AND LARGE AREA OF SAL BEHIND IT. SCATTERED SQUALLS ARE LIKELY ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE AND WIND SURGE AS IT MOVES W ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS TODAY AND INTO THE CARIB TONIGHT AND MON. THE BUILDING HIGH PRES RIDGE BEHIND THIS WAVE WILL ALSO BRING A RETURN TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...BUT WITH WINDS AND SEAS STILL REMAINING BELOW TYPICAL CLIMO VALUES. FRESH TRADES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN CORRIDOR OF THE CARIB WHERE SEAS WILL RUN NEAR 6 FT. AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB TUE AND TUE NIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH POSSIBLE POCKETS TO 25 KT S OF HISPANIOLA. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING