000 AGXX40 KNHC 141910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS ALONG WITH A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AGAIN SHOW SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT CONTINUING N OF 27N E OF 91W. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT WITH THESE WINDS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WIND DIRECTION AND VELOCITY IS ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY. SPEEDS WERE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE FAR SE PORTION. SEAS RANGED FROM 2-4 FT...EXCEPT 1 TO 2 FT IN THE FAR SE PORTION. THE SW 15-20 KT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ON SUN AS THE SUPPORTING PRES WEAKENS WITH THE FURTHER INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NOW OVER EASTERN ALABAMA. NOW THAT THE LOW HAS MOVED FURTHER INLAND...FOR THE SHORT TERM THE MAIN FEATURE DOMINATING THE AREA WILL BE A RIDGE ALONG 26N. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TUE...THEN LIFT N TO NEAR 29N WED AND THU. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND NOW EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM MODEL...THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO AGAIN BE A FEATURE OF INTEREST OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT DRIFTS BACK S TO AND SW ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE MOST OF THE NORTHERN GULF COASTAL STATES. PRESENTLY...IT APPEARS THE LOW MOVES INLAND OR BRUSHES THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA BEFORE MOVING INLAND NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER LATE TUE INTO WED. IMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AS IT DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW MUCH THE LOW IS ABLE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES BACK TO THE S AND SW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 1200 UTC GFS MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN APPEARS TO SHOW THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLN WITH RESPECT TO WINDS WITH THE LOW. SO GO WITH PREVIOUS CONSISTENCY ON WINDS AND SEAS WITH EMPHASIS ON THE ECMWF/UKMET SOLNS WHICH RESEMBLE THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS ALONG WITH THE NAM SOLN. THE NAM SEEMS TOO STRONG WITH THE LOW ON DAYS 3-5. A LOT IS STILL DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WITH ITS IMPACT ON THE LOW. CONFIDENCE LEVEL WILL REMAIN LOW TO MEDIUM WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FOR DAYS 3-5. FOR NOW AM LEANING TO GOING WITH SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF FOR MON AND TUE...WITH IMPACT ON WINDS IN THE NW GULF FOR WED AND THU VERY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. WIND AND SEA FORECASTS FOR THIS AREA IS LIKELY TO CHANGE PENDING THE OUTCOME OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SW N ATLC... AT 1800 UTC...A WEAK RIDGE IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N AS A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM 29N65W TO 28N70W AND NW TO 29N76W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF S CAROLINA. LATEST SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA S OF THEW FRONT WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...AND 1-2 FT SW OF BAHAMAS. STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS ARE NOTED E OF THE FRONT WHERE SHIP DATA AND BUOY 41049 SHOWED SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE W-NW 10-15 KT...EXCEPT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 69W WHERE WINDS ARE NW-N 15-20 KT. SEAS SEAS 5-7 FT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 69W...3-5 FT BETWEEN 69W-74W AND 2-3 FT W OF 73W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N62W TO 28N68W...AND STATIONARY TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST BY LATE TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 28N65W TO 28N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN THROUGH MON. A RIDGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 27N TUE THROUGH THU AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES. WINDS WILL BECOME E-SE 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N71W TO NE COLOMBIA MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH NEAR 80W BY SUN EVENING...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS BEGINNING SUN NIGHT...THEN PASS ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED AND BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS IN RESPONSE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE THROUGH THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT INTENSIFIES MORE THERE THAN ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ELSEWHERE...ELY TRADES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 3-6 FT...HIGHEST OF WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE