000 AGXX40 KNHC 140739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 340 AM EDT SAT AUG 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUES AS AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRES EXTENDING FROM ERN LOUISIANA E-NE THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOWEST PRES EARLY THIS MORNING WERE NEAR BIRMINGHAM AL. THIS FEATURE IS CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW AND WILL LINGER ACROSS THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUN BEFORE HIGH PRES RIDGING FROM THE W ATLC PUSHES THIS ELONGATED LOW PRES SW AND ALONG THE N GULF COASTS OF AL AND MS MON THROUGH TUE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THIS SYSTEM COULD ALLOW IT TO REINTENSIFY AS IS SHIFTS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS...AND THUS EXACTLY HOW FAR OUT OVER WATER THIS LOW MOVES MAY BE CRITICAL. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE E TO W ALONG 27N ACROSS THE BASIN IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN 15 KT SW-W FLOW ACROSS THE FAR N GULF E OF 90W...WHERE SEAS HAVE FINALLY LOWERED TO 3-4 FT. CURRENTLY...LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SAVE FOR 15 KT FLOW OFF THE N YUCATAN AND THE FAR SW GULF...BOTH TYPICAL FOR THESE AREAS. LIGHT WINDS AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN...WITH WINDS ALONG THE NE GULF COASTS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AS THE INLAND LOW WEAKENS FURTHER. HOWEVER AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE COASTLINE SUN NIGHT INTO MON SW TO S WINDS AT 15 KT AND POSSIBLY 15-20 KT SHOULD BE EXPECTED N OF 28N AND E OF 90W. SLY RETURN FLOW IS THEN FORECAST TO OPEN UP ACROSS THE BASIN AND HELP TO GUIDE WHATEVER EVOLVES FROM THIS LOW PRES AREA INLAND ACROSS SW LOUISIANA AND/OR FAR ERN TEXAS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW STILL IN ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW AND THUS HAVE REMAINED ON THE MODERATE SIDE OF WINDS...INCREASING WINDS TO 15-20 KT IN THE SE QUAD OF THIS LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF TUE AND WED. SW N ATLC... DEEP LAYERED LOW ACROSS THE W CENTRAL ATLC BE OF BERMUDA HAS FORCED A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO N PORTIONS OF THE ATLC WATERS EXTENDING FROM JUST SE OF BERMUDA SW TO NEAR 30N70W THEN TURNING NW AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR THE SC-NC BORDER. A BROAD ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS ACROSS THE NW ATLC WILL GENERATE NELY SWELL THAT WILL INVADE THE SW ATLC WATERS SUN EVENING AROUND 3-4 FT AND REACH THE BAHAMAS AND THE NRN CARIB ISLANDS MON AT 2-3 FT. OTHERWISE LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW YIELDING WEAK TRADES PREVAILS S OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...EXCEPT FOR SWLY WINDS 20-25 KT N OF 27N E OF THE FRONT TO 64W...WHERE SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BUILDING TO 8 FT. SUPPORTING UPPER ENERGY FOR THE DEEP LAYERED LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE N WHILE THE FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SE THROUGH SUN BEFORE WEAKENING AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE NW THROUGH TUE. THIS TO OCCUR AS THE LLVL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE NE CARIB MON NIGHT-TUE MORNING AND INTO FAR SE PORTIONS TUE...FRESHENING WINDS S OF 21N TO NEAR 20 KT AND RAISING SEAS TO 6 FT. A LIGHT SE TO S FLOW AND SLIGHT SEAS IN A MIX OF MODERATE PERIOD SWELL WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK TRADES CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIB AND ADJACENT TROPICAL ATLC AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE GENERALLY REMAINS ACROSS THE NE ATLC. SELY LOW TO MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN TRANSPORTING TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MORE NWLY THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WITH ONE WAVE INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH A SECOND WAVE HAS FRACTURED FOR A SECOND TIME...LEAVING WEAK TROUGHING NE TO SW ACROSS THE NE CARIB...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE MOVING WLY ACROSS W VENEZUELA AND INTO COLOMBIA AND THE ADJACENT CARIB ATTM. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN MILD WITH PEAK WINDS E-SE 15-20 KT ACROSS THE SRN CARIB AND E NEAR 20 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS BASED ON A 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS. SEAS ARE ONLY 5 TO POSSIBLY 6 FT IN THE AREAS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN UNTIL THE HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC REACHES THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES INTO THE E AND NE CARIB MON. SAHARAN AIR AND A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL WATERS AND INTO THE NE CARIB AND WILL YIELD SQUALLS WITH WIND GUST POTENTIAL TO GALE FORCE SUN NIGHT AND MON. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY TO 6 FT BEHIND THE WAVE IN ELY SWELL MON THEN 6-7 FT TUE AND WED ACROSS THE ATLC WHILE LACK OF PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB WILL YIELD ONLY 20 KT WINDS N AND NE PORTIONS MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH SEAS GRADUALLY BUILDING 6-7 FT ALSO. HOWEVER THESE VALUES REMAIN BELOW WHAT CAN TYPICALLY BE SEEN WITH TROPICAL WAVE RELATED WIND SURGES. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING