000 AGXX40 KNHC 131848 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE CONTINUES OVER FAR SE MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N88W 1008 MB MOVE SLOWLY NE. SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS AS DRIER AIR PUNCHES IN FROM THE E AT THE MID LEVELS. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REVEAL SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT PERSISTING ACROSS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF N OF ABOUT 27N. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT IN THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED HAS CHANGED VERY SINCE YESTERDAY. WINDS ARE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...S TO SW IN DIRECTION FROM 24N TO 27N AND VARIABLE SE TO S 5-10 KT S OF 24N IN THE SE PORTION. SEAS RANGED FROM 3-5 FT FROM 24N TO 27N...AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION. THE GRADIENT SUPPORTING THE SW 15-20 KT HAS BEEN DELAYED IN SLACKENING DUE TO THE VERY SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE REMNANT LOW. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT BY SAT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT AS A RIDGE FROM SW FLORIDA TO 23N91W LIFTS N TO ALONG 26N...AND TO 27N SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WHAT IS TO HAPPEN WITH THE REMNANT LOW AS WITH FUTURE IMPLICATIONS ON WINDS AND SEAS. LATEST RUN OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE LOW DROPS BACK S LATE SUN INTO MON OVER THE NE PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN TRACKS SW INTO THE FAR NORTHERN GULF LATER ON MON INTO TUE...AND INTO THE EXTREME NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE NW GULF ON WED WITH SOME POSSIBILITY OF SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SOLN WITH RESPECT TO WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW OR NEW LOW FEATURE ON DAYS 4 AND 5...SO WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE MILDER ECMWF AND UKMET SLONS WHICH RESEMBLE THEIR RESPECTIVE MEANS. A LOT DEPENDS ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS TO WHETHER THE LOW FEATURE MOVES FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO NOT HAVE MUCH AFFECT ON THE PRES PRES GRADIENT. CONFIDENCE...THEREFORE...IS QUITE LOW FOR THE LOW SCENARIO FOR MAINLY DAYS 4 AND 5. FOR NOW AM LEANING TO GOING WITH SLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE N CENTRAL GULF FOR TUE AND WED WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. THIS IS LIKELY TO CHANGE PENDING THE OUTCOME OF FUTURE MODEL RUNS. SW N ATLC... AT 1800 UTC...A RIDGE IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS W TO WESTERN CUBA. RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION WHERE WINDS ARE SW-W 15-20 KT E OF 75W AND W-NW 10-15 KT IN THE FAR NW PORTION. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE FAR NE PORTION BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND QUICKLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. THE HIGHEST RANGE OF THESE SEAS SHOULD BE BE ALONG AND N OF 30N...BUT RAPIDLY SUBSIDE ONCE GRADIENT E OF THE FRONT TRANSLATES E OF 65W. SOME INCREASE IN ELY WINDS...POSSIBLY TO A BRIEF 15-20 KT RANGE...MAY OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE WATERS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL PANAMA IS MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND WITH ITS MAIN IMPACT NOTED AS EXTENSIVE TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. THE SECOND TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 10N64W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THIS WAVE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE DAY...AS BULK OF ITS ENERGY LIFTS NNE. TRADE SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS NEAR THE S AMERICAN COAST SUN THROUGH WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT INTENSIFIES. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE ALREADY EVIDENT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE EXTREME EASTERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...ELY TRADES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 3-6 FT...HIGHEST OF WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE