000 AGXX40 KNHC 130749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 348 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE NOW OVER SE COASTAL MISSISSIPPI...JUST EAST OF BILOXI WITH A PRES OF 1008 MB. CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COASTAL ZONES HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AS LAND AREAS GO THROUGH A NOCTURNAL MINIMUM. A WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE WAS E TO W ALONG 26N YIELDING LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE GULF N OF 27N AND E OF 90W...WHERE OBS INDICATE SW WINDS 15-20 KT AND SEAS 5-6 FT. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT REMNANTS OF THIS CIRCULATION WILL DRIFT NE NEXT 48 HRS OR SO AND THEN BE FORCED BACK TOWARDS THE SW AND POSSIBLY AGAIN OVER WATER ON MONDAY...WHERE THERE WOULD BE A CHANCE FOR REGENERATION. SWLY FLOW OF 15 KT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NE GULF TODAY AND POTENTIALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 THIS AFTERNOON AS INFLOW TO DEVELOPING CNVTN OCCURS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 5-6 FT THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING. FLOW IS LIKELY TO BECOME MORE WLY AND DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT SUN AS THIS LOW LIFTS FARTHER NE AND INLAND...TEMPORARILY. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ENHANCED 15-20 KT FLOW ALONG THE NW AND W COASTS OF THE YUCATAN EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGE IS BROKEN INTO TWO SEGMENTS...ONE ACROSS THE NE ATLC E OF 55W...AND A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALONG 25.5N W OF 60W. A DEEP LAYERED WEAKNESS ALONG 55-60W CARVED OUT BY THE MID ATLC UPPER TROUGH WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG S AND SE ACROSS THE W ATLC AND INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND PUSH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY S INTO NW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND REACH THE NW BAHAMAS SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MEANDERING ACROSS THERE THROUGH TUE. AHEAD OF THE FRONT MODELS FORECAST SWLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE SMALL POCKETS OF HIGHER WINDS...AND SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT N OF 28N E OF 70W. NELY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF ELONGATED LOW PRES ALONG THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLC WILL GENERATE MODERATE NELY SWELL THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS SUN AND MON. LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK TROUGHING NE OF THE NE CARIB WILL SEE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES RETURN BY MONDAY AND HELP TO GRADUALLY PUSH THE BAHAMAS FRONT BACK TO THE NW. A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE E ATLC WILL MOVE QUICKLY W AND ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY SUN BRINGING WITH IT A WIND SURGE OF 15-20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS 5-6 FT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BROKEN ATLC RIDGE NOT ALLOWING FOR MUCH PRES GRADIENT AND YIELDING A WEAKENED TRADE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN. SELY STEERING FLOW HAS BEEN TAKING PAST FEW TROPICAL WAVES ON A MORE NW TRAJECTORY...AND THAN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE WEAKENED REMNANTS OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB...WHILE THE OTHER WAVE NEARING THE NE CARIB DRIFTS NW AND BECOMES ILL DEFINED. WIDESPREAD CNVTN FIRING ACROSS THE SW CARIB WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES AWAY FROM COLOMBIA AND BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE EPAC MONSOON CIRCULATION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR E TO SE WINDS AROUND 15 KT TO PREVAIL N OF THE ITCZ W OF 78W TODAY...WHILE E-SE WINDS NEAR 20 KT PREVAIL FROM OFFSHORE OF VENEZUELA W AND NW ACROSS THE A-B-C'S AND SRN CARIB...WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. OTHERWISE...E-SE TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE BROAD CARIB WITH A MODERATE ELY FLOW RETURNING TO THE BASIN SAT NIGHT AND SUN. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING