000 AGXX40 KNHC 121850 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MAIN FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE NOW OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH A PRES OF 1009 MB. IT APPEARS TO BE ABOUT STATIONARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. NWS RADAR DISPLAYS ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED SCATTERED TSTM CLUSTERS N OF 27N BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. OBSERVATIONS FROM BOTH BUOY AND OIL PLATFORMS FROM THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAVE REVEALED THAT SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE CONTINUING OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF N OF ABOUT 27N. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 5-6 FT IN THESE WATERS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WINDS WERE RATHER LIGHT IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...S TO SW IN DIRECTION FROM 24N TO 27N AND LIGHTER SE TO S ABOUT 5-10 KT S OF 24N IN THE SE PORTION. SEAS RANGED FROM 3-5 FT FROM 24N TO 27N...AND 1 TO 3 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION. WITH THE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL THEN BEGIN TO RELAX ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO REACH W ALONG 25N TONIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN SHIFT N TO ALONG 27N SAT THROUGH TUE MAINTAINING RATHER TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE GULF DURING THE PERIOD. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 MODELS HINT THAT THE REMNANT LOW DROPS BACK S INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF. THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS APPEARS TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND IS MORE REASONABLE WITH THE OTHER MODELS IN DEPICTING THIS. BOTH ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON SLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KT OVER THESE WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING POSSIBLY UP TO 7 FT OVER THE FAR N CENTRAL WATERS ON TUE PER LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE. SW N ATLC... AT 1800 UTC...A 1016 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR 26N69W WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL BAHAMAS SSW TO ACROSS CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RECENT SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA. SEAS WERE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BRUSH THE FAR NE PORTION ON SAT...AND QUICKLY PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LATEST ECMWF RUN AGREES WITH THE 12 GFS RUN THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF INSTANCE OF SW WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT. THE HIGHEST RANGE OF THESE SEAS SHOULD BE BE ALONG AND N OF 30N...BUT RAPIDLY SUBSIDE ONCE GRADIENT E OF THE FRONT TRANSLATES E OF 65W. SOME INCREASE IN ELY WINDS MAY OCCUR LATE MON INTO TUE OVER THE FAR SE PORTION AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH ACROSS THOSE WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM HISPANIOLA TO NEAR COLOMBIA IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT WITH THIS WAVE...HOWEVER ACTIVE WEATHER IN TERMS OF SCATTERED TSTMS ACTIVITY IS DISPLAYED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS FROM ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA S TO 15N AND BETWEEN 68W AND 73W. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REST OF AFTERNOON...AND INTO TONIGHT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH EARLY FRI NIGHT...THEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 240 NM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...AND ONLY MOVING ABOUT 5-10 KT IN A GENERAL NWLY MOTION. THE WAVE MAY AT MOST AFFECT PART OF THE NE CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH ACTIVE ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MAIN ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE SHOULD STAY N OF THE AREA. TRADES SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INTENSIFIES SOME. OTHERWISE...ELY TRADES WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS 3-6 FT...HIGHEST OF WHICH SHOULD BE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE