000
AGXX40 KNHC 090803
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
420 AM EDT MON AUG 09 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 95W IN BAY 
OF CAMPECHE.

LOW PRES EXPECTED TO SPIN OFF FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NORTH FLORIDA. 
MODELS CONSENSUS SHOW MUCH MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM DEEPENING OVER 
EASTERN GULF MON AND MOVING W TOWARD LOUISIANA THU.  GFS WEAKER 
AND FARTHER E.  FORECAST LEANS TOWARD COMPROMISE BETWEEN ECMWF 
AND GFS TRACK WHICH BRING LOW PRES NEAR 29N82W AND MOVES IT INTO 
FAR NE GULF BEFORE CARRYING IT INTO FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 
30N85W EARLY WED.

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
WITH COLIN NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION N OF AREA...WINDS NOW DOWN 
TO A FRESH S BREEZE N OF 29N E OF 67W.  REFER TO TROPICAL 
CYCLONE DISCUSSION...TCDAT4 OR WTNT44 KNHC...ON T.S. COLIN FOR 
MORE DETAILS. 

WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH OVER EXTREME NW CORNER OF BASIN HAS SPUN OFF 
LOW PRES CENTER 101 MB NEAR 29N80W.  MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT LATE MON OR TUE DRIFTING W-SW INTO 
GULF OF MEXICO.  SEE GULF OF MEXICO PARAGRAPH ABOVE FOR DETAILS. 
ELSEWHERE...LOW PRES CENTER EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W 
IN CENTRAL ATLC HAS DETACHED AND IS NOW FOLLOWING SHALLOW 
STEERING AROUND HIGH PRES CENTER NW OF BASIN.  THIS TRACK BRINGS 
CENTER...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 48 HRS...CLOSE TO 55W  
WED AS IT TURNS N THEN NE BY THU.  THIS OUGHT TO KEEP SYSTEM 
BARELY OUTSIDE OF OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK TROUGH ALONG 67W KEEPS FLAT PRES GRADIENT AND LIGHT TO 
MODERATE E BREEZE ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN.  TROUGH IN EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BE ALONG 75W TUE AND TROPICAL WAVE THAT 
SPAWNED LOW PRES SYSTEM IN CENTRAL ATLC WILL ENTER CARIBBEAN 
WED.  NEITHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO INCREASE WIND OR SEAS 
SIGNIFICANTLY.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES