000 AGXX40 KNHC 080825 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 430 AM EDT SUN AUG 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 92W IN BAY OF CAMPECHE BRING SCATTERED TSTMS BUT LITTLE TO PUSH WINDS ABOVE A FRESH BREEZE. WAVE EXPECTED W OF SW GULF WATERS LATE TODAY OR TONIGHT. WIDE ARRAY OF SOLUTIONS FOR NE GULF GUIDANCE. UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DIGS S ON W SIDE OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER SW N ATLC AND SPARKS WEAK LOW PRES CENTER WHICH MODELS HAVE HARD TIME TO PINPOINT LOCATION...INTENSITY OR TIMING. FORECAST FOLLOWS GFS CLOSER WHICH DEVELOPS WEAK LOW PRES CENTER NEAR FLORIDA NE COAST AND DRIFT IT W-SW INTO NE GULF LATE MON AND INTO N CENTRAL GULF BY THU. OTHER GUIDANCE DIVERGE IN TIMING WITH ECMWF MOST AGGRESSIVE AND SLOWER THAN OTHERS. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS AT 30.7N 65.6W AT 0500 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 GUST TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 12 FT. COLIN HAS SLOWED DOWN ITS NLY MOVEMENT TO 6 KT DELAYING ITS EXIT N OF 31N ALTHOUGH IT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY. COLIN NOW MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM AND...WHILE CHANCES OF INTENSIFYING STILL REMAIN LATENT...IT IS EXPERIENCING HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT AND COLDER WATERS WHICH DIMINISHES ITS THREAT TO MARITIME OR LAND INTERESTS. SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...TCDAT4 OR WTNT44 KNHC...ON T.S. COLIN FOR MORE DETAILS. WEAK LOW RES EMBEDDED IN TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 42W-43W MOVES W-NW APPROACHING E BOUNDARY BY LATE WED AND THU. MODELS AGAIN DIVERGE IN TRACK ALTHOUGH MOST DO AGREE IN PRESENT NW DRIFT THEN TURN N NEAR 52W-54W WED OR THU THEN SHIFT NE AWAY FROM ZONE THEREAFTER. POSSIBILITY OF INTENSIFICATION INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE EXIST WITHIN 24-48 HRS AND SYSTEM IS MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF STRENGTHENING OR TRACKING MORE TO THE WEST WHICH WOULD BRING IT INTO ZONE. CARIBBEAN SEA... ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS SE AS COLIN DRIFT N WITH MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 42W EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W INTO TROPICAL ATLC BY WED. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 28N E OF 66W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES