000 AGXX40 KNHC 071206 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0805 AM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WILL MOVE NW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN THROUGH MON. THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD WINDS 15 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SW GULF ZONE BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING THAN EARLIER VERSIONS OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF...HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE OTHER MODELS HAVE PLAYED CATCH UP HERE. THE FLARE UP OF CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON WAS ANOTHER NOD TOWARD THE GFS. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS ITS SOLUTION WITH THE WAVE. THE MODELS DIVERGE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUN THROUGH WED. THE CMC..ECMWF...AND UKMET HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE IDEA OF PINCHING OFF A MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DIVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS HAS FINALLY GIVEN IN TO THIS SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THERE IS ALMOST NO AGREEMENT ON WHERE THE LOW WILL CUT OFF OR HOW STRONG IT WILL BE AMONG THE MODELS AVAILABLE BY 12Z. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE MID LEVEL LOW OFF THE COAST OF SAVANNAH AND RETROGRADES IT OVER LAND TOWARD THE NE GULF BY WED. THE CMC ALSO PREFERS MID LEVEL LOW DEVELOPMENT NEAR SAVANNAH...BUT THEN ENHANCES A LOBE OF VORTICITY OVER FLORIDA AND DRAGS THE BROAD CIRCULATION SOUTH FASTER. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER IN THE MID LEVELS AND PINCHES OFF ITS LOW NEAR JACKSONVILLE BEFORE SENDING IT W AND THE UKMET WAITS TO DEVELOP A LOW UNTIL UNTIL TUE OVER THE EASTERN GULF. THE ECMWF ENS MEAN PREFERS A STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE GFS...BUT IT FOLLOWS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF...CLOSER TO THE GFS. THEREFORE...WILL LEAN TOWARD A BEEFED UP VERSION OF THE GFS HERE...WITH STRONGER BEING RELATIVE AS THE WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABOUT 15 KT IN THE FORECAST. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS AT 29.1N 66.5W AT 0900 UTC THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 17 FT. COLIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY E OF NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE TODAY AND FINALLY EXIT THE SW N ATLC ZONE OVERNIGHT. SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...TCDAT4 OR WTNT44 KNHC...ON T.S. COLIN FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE SEE THE DISCUSSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION FOR THE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA OFFSHORE REGION. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE SPOT LOW ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE FOUND ALONG 38W/39W. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM WHICH IS GENERALLY WEAK AND TAKES THE SYSTEM TO NEAR 20N50W MON MORNING AND SOMEWHERE NEAR 24N57W BY WED MORNING. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WORDING WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES. THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY AGREED UPON MEDR FORECAST POINTS HEDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NEW MODELS. THIS LARGELY KEEPS THE SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME REASONABLY QUIET IN THE CARIBBEAN AFTERWARD. THE RIDGE HAS FILLED IN ENOUGH TO THE S OF THE COLIN TO BUILD WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO THE 0234 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST AND SHIP DILE NEAR 14N77W. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH WED...WITH 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN THE USUAL PLACES ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA... ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 38W/39W THAT COULD POSSIBLY SPAWN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W INTO THE CARIBBEAN BY WED WITH LITTLE FANFARE. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 27N E OF 67W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER