000 AGXX40 KNHC 070834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 440 AM EDT SAT AUG 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM 28N83W TO 27N97W MAINTAINS GOOD GRIP ON GULF WATERS WITH MOSTLY LIGHT S TO SW BREEZE N OF AXIS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE E BREEZE S OF 25N. ONLY WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY SUN DISTURBS PATTERN. SOME FRESH NE BREEZE ALONG W COAST OF YUCATAN PENINSULA IN LATE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS IS EXPECTED WITH APPROACH OF WAVE AXIS. WEAK LOW PRES CENTER MOVES OFF GEORGIA COAST DRAGGING WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG GULF STATES SAT WITH GUIDANCE DIFFERING IN EFFECTS OVER GULF WATERS. LATEST RUNS POINT TO SHORT-LIVED INCREASE TO A MODERATE WESTERLY BREEZE WITH SEAS REMAINING AT 2 FT OR LESS. WHILE MOST MODELS MAINTAIN WEAK RIDGE ACROSS NE WATERS...GFS SUBSTITUTES 1014 MB HIGH PRES ON MON WITH 1012 MB LOW PRES ON WED...BUT KEEP WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGHOUT. FORECAST SHY AWAY FROM LOW PRES BUT BRING WINDS AROUND THE W BY WED. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM COLIN AT 29.1N 66.5W AT 0900 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40 KT AND SEAS TO 17 FT WITHIN 120 NM ON EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. COLIN FORECAST TO DRIFT N THROUGH NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF SW N ATLC ZONE LATER TODAY WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS IN EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. BY LATE SAT COLIN SHOULD BE N OF 31N MOVING NE AWAY FROM BASIN. SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...TCDAT4 OR WTNT44 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 38W MOVING E IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LOW PRES CENTER 1013 MB IN ITS CREST NEAR 17N38W...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE. UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT TURNS ADVERSE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT FURTHER W WITH DRIER AIR MASS AND STRONGER SW WIND SHEAR. MODEL GUIDANCE BREAK LOW PRES CENTER FROM WAVE AND SLIDES IT NE TUE THEN N ALONG 57W-58W WED...WITH LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT ON SW N ATLC BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 84W MOVE W INLAND YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. ATLC RIDGE EXPANDS SE AS COLIN MOVES FURTHER N. LIGHT TRADES TODAY AND TONIGHT INCREASE THROUGH TUE...WITH FRESH E-NE BREEZE EXPECTED ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA AS PRES GRADIENT BUILDS AGAIN. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 27N E OF 67W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER WALLY BARNES