000 AGXX40 KNHC 061805 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. WARNINGS... GULF OF MEXICO... EXPECTING MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH SAT...EXCEPT NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ENHANCED ALONG NW YUCATAN COAST AND E BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING EVENINGS BUILDING TO 3 FT SEAS IN BAY OF CAMPECHE TILL ABOUT MIDNIGHT BOTH NIGHTS. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUN THROUGH MON. THE 00Z/06 ECMWF TRENDED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION WHICH ALLOWS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAINFALL AND WIDESPREAD WINDS 15 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE ACROSS THE SW GULF ZONE BRIEFLY ON SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING AS A RESULT. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE PREFERENCE FOR THE CONSISTENT GFS SOLUTION HERE. THE MODELS DIVERGE MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUN AND MON WHEN THE CMC..ECMWF...AND UKMET ALL CONTINUE TO PINCH OFF A MID LEVEL LOW FROM THE COLD FRONT THAT DIVES INTO THE SE TOWARD THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND DOES NOT PINCH OFF SUCH A LOW. THE TREND IN THE OTHER MODELS IS TOWARD THE EAST...DEVELOPING THE LOW EITHER OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR OVER THE FAR E GULF. THE 00Z/06 GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING SOME SUPPORT FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION...WITH STRONGER BEING RELATIVE IN THIS CASE AS THE ECMWF ONLY BRIEFLY SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE LOW TO 20 KT OFF THE SW FLORIDA COAST ON TUE. THE FORECAST WILL SIDE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND DEPICT A WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN GULF MON AND TUE...BUT WILL NOT GO FOR WINDS AS STRONG AS THE ECMWF JUST YET. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM COLIN WAS AT 27.1N 66.9W AT 1500 UTC THIS MORNING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS TO 40KT AND SEAS TO 18 FT. COLIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLIGHTLY E OF NORTH THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE TODAY THROUGH SAT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS FOUND E OF THE CENTER. THE LOW SHOULD MOVE N OF AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND JUST TO THE SW OF BERMUDA. SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DISCUSSION...TCDAT4 OR WTNT44 KNHC...ON T.S. COLIN FOR MORE DETAILS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE FORECAST ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING 37W AND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CURRENTLY DEPICT A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL VORTICITY IN THE REGION OF THE ITCZ AND THEY AGREE ON ALLOWING THE TROPICAL WAVE TO LIFT THE ENERGY NORTHWARD AS THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH AND BREAK IT UP INTO SEVERAL VORT CENTERS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON HOW MANY VORT CENTERS OR HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE. ONE THING THEY DO AGREE ON IS DEVELOPING A SPOT LOW ALONG THE WAVE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WORDING WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST. THE FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THE PREVIOUSLY AGREED UPON MEDR FORECAST POINTS HEDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NEW MODELS. THIS LARGELY KEEPS THE SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE OFFSHORE ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY THAN THE GFS WITH THE LOW TRACK...BUT OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FIVE DAYS CONSIDERING HOW DIFFERENT THEIR MID LEVEL EVOLUTIONS ARE. THE GFS ALLOWS THE BULK OF THE ITCZ ENERGY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO THIS LOW WHILE THE ECMWF BREAKS OFF A CHUNK TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN CENTER WHICH KEEPS ITS SURFACE DEPICTION MORE WEAK THAN THE GFS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W WILL MOVE W THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS BY SAT MORNING. 20 KT WINDS ARE FOUND WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE WAVE WITH WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER IN THE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. FARTHER E...THE RIDGE IS BEGINNING TO FILL IN S OF THE COLIN AND THE 1346 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 KT WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WHERE THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING RIDGE AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS STRONGEST. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH TUE...WITH 20 KT WINDS EXPECTED IN THE USUAL PLACES ALONG THE COASTS OF COLOMBIA AND HISPANIOLA...ESPECIALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N E OF 67W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER