000
AGXX40 KNHC 060820
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
220 AM EDT FRI AUG 06 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE EXTEND ALONG 29N DIPS S TO 27N AS WEAK 
FRONTAL TROUGH SKIRTS NE PORTION OF GULF EARLY MON.  LIGHT E TO 
SE BREEZE THROUGHOUT MOST OF GULF N OF 25N AND LIGHT TO MODERATE 
E BREEZE S OF 25N AS WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ENTERS YUCATAN PENINSULA 
TONIGHT AND BAY OF CAMPECHE SAT NIGHT AND SUN.  MODEL GUIDANCE 
BRISK TROUGH NE AND REBUILDS RIDGE N TUE. 

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
ALTHOUGH REGENERATED...TROPICAL STORM COLIN APPEAR TO HAVE A 
HARD TIME FIGHTING AGAINST STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS 
EXPOSED ITS CENTER AND DECOUPLED CONVECTION FROM IT.  SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS SHOW MOST WINDS...REACHING 35 KT...ARE MAINLY ON E 
SEMICIRCLE OF CENTER.  WIND SHEAR ALOFT WEAKENS WITHIN 36 HRS 
AND COLIN MAY RESTRENGTHEN...BUT WOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH DEFENDING EASTERN SEABOARD LIKELY INCREASE SW WINDS 
PUSHING COLIN TO ITS DEMISE AWAY FROM LAND AREAS. 

ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE TRIES TO REBUILDS SE AS COLIN MOVES N OF 
31N BUT CREST OF STRONG TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 38W EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP LOW PRES CENTER WHICH THEN TURNS N ALONG 55W WEAKENING 
RIDGE AND KEEPING LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY BREEZE OVER BASIN 
THROUGH TUE.  THIS SCENARIO WELL SUPPORTED BY CONSENSUS OF 
DYNAMIC MODELS.  FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS IT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 81W MOVE W AT 15 KT ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA AND GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY...AND INLAND TONIGHT.  MODERATE E 
BREEZE WITHIN 300 NM E OF WAVE AS PRES GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN BECOMES SLACK WITH ATLC RIDGE SO FAR AWAY.  LIGHT TO 
MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS E CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT WHEN 
RIDGE SHIFT S AND TRIES TO TIGHTENS GRADIENT AGAIN.  WINDS 
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO FRESH THROUGH CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N E OF 68W...

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES