000 AGXX40 KNHC 031902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH IS ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH MILD FLOW AT AROUND 10 KT AND LESS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING W ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ATTM AND SHOULD ENHANCE NORMAL LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CNVTN THERE AND SPREAD IT WEST ACROSS THE EXTREME SW GULF TONIGHT. THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WEAKLY W ALONG 28N AND ACROSS THE N GULF BEYOND WED. HOWEVER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS THE FAR SW N ATLC WATERS OFF OF FLORIDA CURRENTLY BLOCKING HIGH AND WILL NEED TO MOVE NW AND INTO THE SE U.S. BEFORE RIDGING OCCURS. OTHERWISE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS 3 FT OR LESS FOR NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 15 KT AND SEAS TO 4 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CYCLE OVER THE YUCATAN. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS NW PORTIONS BEGINNING TO DRIFT NW AS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE HAS BEGUN TO BUILD WEAKLY SW. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD SW NEXT FEW DAYS AND PUSH REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH W OF AREA WED EVENING. THE HIGH TO THE N OF TROPICAL STORM COLIN AND AN ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE THE COLIN DEVELOPED FROM WILL HELP TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF 20 KT ELY WINDS WITH POCKETS TO 25 KT MOVING W INTO SE PORTIONS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS E PORTIONS TONIGHT AND WED. SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTS THAT THE SMALL CORE OF COLIN IS MOVING SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN FORECAST...AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE UPDATED WITH NEXT PACKAGE...MOVING FORECAST FORWARD ABOUT 6 HOURS OR SO. COLIN EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SE PORTIONS EARLY THU MORNING AND PASS JUST N OF THE LEEWARDS AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. SMALL CENTRAL CORE AND FAST MOTION ARE LIMITING WAVE GROWTH AND SIZE OF WAVE FIELD OF COLIN...AND MOST OF THE WAVE FIELD WILL BE PRODUCE WITH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE AHEAD OF COLIN. SEE LATEST FORECASTS ON COLIN FOR UPDATED TIMELINE. AND TURN INTO A MID LEVEL WEAKNESS TOWARD THE NW IS EXPECTED FRI AND SAT AS COLIN TRANSECTS THE AREA...MOVING IN A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS 30N 71W SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE NEARING 70W WAS DEPICTED BY WINDSAT IMAGE THIS MORNING WITH 20-25 KT E-NE WINDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN...WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING TO 8 FT. A MID LEVEL PERTURBATION AHEAD OF IT WITH LLVL REFLECTION AND WIND SURGE ALONG PRODUCING AN E-NE 20 KT WIND SURGE S OF HAITI AND JAMAICA...SHIFTING W. THESE TWO WIND SURGES WILL SHIFT W NEXT FEW DAYS TO MAINTAIN 20-25 KT OF ELY TRADES AND SEAS 6-8 FT GENERALLY N OF 14N AND INTO THE W CARIB AND WEAKENING THU AND FRI. WIND SURGE AHEAD OF COLIN MOVING ACROSS N PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM AND IS BUILDING SEAS 8-9 FT N OF 15N THERE THAT WILL SHIFT W THROUGH THE NE CARIB PASSAGES TONIGHT AND INTO THE ADJACENT SW N ATLC BY MORNING. SMALL CENTRAL CORE OF COLIN APPEARS TO BE RACING AHEAD OF CNVTN AND AHEAD OF RECENT FORECASTS...EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED NW TO SE ENVELOPE WITH ITS PARENT TROPICAL WAVE. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES THAT COLIN WILL NOT SURVIVE AS A TROPICAL STORM NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE CURRENT FORECAST SPEED OF 25-30 KT COUPLED WITH THE WLY'S ALOFT AHEAD OF IT WILL ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR. REGARDLESS...THIS BROAD AND FAST MOVING REGION OF ENHANCED TRADES AND SMALL AREAS OF 25 KT PLUS WINDS WILL SHIFT W-NW ACROSS THE EXTREME NE CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT YIELDING SQUALLS AND SOME TSTMS....AND BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST AND NEXT UPDATED MARINE FORECASTS FOR TS COLIN FOR DETAILS ON THIS CHANGING SCENARIO. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .AMZ087...TS WARNING. .AMZ080...TS CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY THU THRU SAT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING