000 AGXX40 KNHC 021853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT MON AUG 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-SW TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF FROM AN ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS W ACROSS S FL OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. THE WEAK NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING SLOWLY W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROUGH WILL BECOME MORE N TO S ALIGNED NEXT 12-24 HRS AND CONTINUE WESTWARD AND MOVE INLAND TUE ACROSS MEXICO AND FAR S TEXAS. THE 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF WILL COLLAPSE AS THE TROUGH MOVES W TONIGHT...AND THE ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OCCASIONALLY ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTING MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...PERHAPS 15 KT AND 3 FT SEAS ALONG YUCATAN COAST IN EVENING ENHANCED WINDS. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 28N78W TO SE GA...AND REMAINS ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A LITTLE FURTHER S AND INTO THE NW BAHAMAS THEN STALLING ALONG A PSN FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FL BY TONIGHT AS IT WEAKENS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W AGAIN ON TUE AS THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W WITH AN AXIS ALONG 30N WED THROUGH FRI. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS ALONG AND SE OF THIS TROUGH TO THE SW OF BERMUDA MOSTLY SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE E OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. SW FLOW N OF RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY 15 TO 20 KT AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10 KT TUE. WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE E CARIB ATTM WILL HELP TO ENHANCE ELY TRADES S OF 24N TONIGHT THROUGH TUE...THEN A FURTHER FRESHENING OF THE TRADES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SE PORTIONS TUE NIGHT AND WED AS TROPICAL WAVE RELATED WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH TD FOUR APPROACHES THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS WRN CARIB AND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER LAND AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS EVENING. CONFLUENT SE TO ELY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE MOVING INTO THE NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS COASTS AROUND 20 KT BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT THERE. MODEST WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROPICAL WAVE OVER E CARIB ATTM YIELDING A NARROW FETCH OF 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS 7-8 FT BETWEEN 15N AND 18S E OF 72W...AND WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT 48 HOURS. ATLC RIDGE BUILDING WEAKLY INTO THE ERN GULF BY WED AND APPROACHING WIND SURGE AHEAD OF TD FOUR WILL INCREASE WINDS ACROSS THE NE CARIB TUE THROUGH WED BEFORE GRADIENT BEGINS TO DIMINISH W AND SW OF TD FOUR...OR THE FORECAST TROPICAL STORMS...WED NIGHT AND THU. CURRENT FORECAST MOVE THE WIND SURGE ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY TUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT...WITH WITH TD FOUR/TS FORECAST TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. ATTM THE WIND FIELD OF THE TD REMAINS SMALL AND THIS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF WINDS STRONGER THAN 25 KT...NOR A LARGE WAVE FIELD IN EXCESS OF 9 FT. E TO E-SE WIND SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SURGE AND THE TD/TS TO MOVE INTO N PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WED...WITH SEAS 6-7 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 9 FT WED NIGHT AND THU...AND HIGHER NEAR AND TO THE NE OF THE TD/TS. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST AND DISCUSSIONS FOR TD FOUR. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING