000
AGXX40 KNHC 020558
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A N-S TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES A 
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NW GULF FROM AN ATLC RIDGE THAT EXTENDS W 
ACROSS S FL OVER THE SE GULF WATERS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. STILL 
EXPECTING THIS WEAK N TO S TROUGH..MERGED WITH THE WAVE TO THE 
S...TO CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE AREA W OF 90W TODAY AND 
DISSIPATING BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INLAND OVER NE MEXICO AND E TX. 
THE SURFACE HIGH CURRENTLY OVER THE NW GULF WILL DISSIPATE AND 
AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES TONIGHT A RIDGE WILL BUILD W ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN WATERS WITH HIGH PRES DEVELOPING OCCASIONALLY ALONG THE 
RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECTING 
MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 2 FT THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD...PERHAPS 3 FT ALONG YUCATAN COAST IN EVENING ENHANCED 
WINDS. 

SW N ATLC...
A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO 29N77W TO SE GA AND IS
STILL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A LITTLE FURTHER S STALLING ALONG A 
PSN FROM 31N70W TO CENTRAL FL BY TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE 
W AGAIN ON TUE AS A CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W WITH AN AXIS 
ALONG 30N WED THROUGH FRI. SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE OVER THE 
WATERS WELL E OF THIS TROUGH TO THE SW OF BERMUDA MOSTLY 
SUPPORTED BY THE DIFFLUENCE E OF A LARGE UPPER TROUGH. SW FLOW N 
OF RIDGE AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY 15 TO 20 KT 
AND EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT TONIGHT AND 5 TO 10 KT TUE. 
GUIDANCE AGAIN FLUCTUATING ON STRENGTH OF ELY WINDS WELL S OF 
THE RIDGE...WILL GO WITH 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT THE SE BAHAMAS 
AND ATLC WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO THROUGH THE 
PERIOD.   

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W HAS MOVED W AT 17 KT OVER THE PAST 72 
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD MOVE WAVE THROUGH GULF OF HONDURAS 
TODAY. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W ATTM HAS BEEN MOVING A 
LITTLE SLOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AT ABOUT 12 KT...AND THIS SHOULD 
TAKE THE WAVE AXIS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ISLANDS EARLY 
TODAY...TO ALONG 65W TUE...71W WED...76W THU AND 81W FRI. THE 
BIG UNCERTAINTY IS A TROPICAL LOW PRES THAT IS EXTREMELY 
CONVECTIVE BUT THE ACTUAL LOW LEVEL CENTER IS VERY DIFFICULT TO 
LOCATE AND IS ESTIMATED NEAR 11N35W...BUT THE INITIAL PSN IS 
LIKELY TO CHANGE AS THE SYSTEM ORGANIZES...MOST LIKELY NW OF ITS 
CURRENT CENTER. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ITENSIFICATION...THUS POSSIBLE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WORDING...AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NW PASSING TO 
THE N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FRI.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

.GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON