000 AGXX40 KNHC 311854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK FRONTAL TYPE TROUGH FROM THE NE GULF TO S CENTRAL GULF HAS NW TO W WINDS NEAR 10 KT TO THE NW AND SW TO W WINDS AT 5 TO 0 KT TO THE SE. A SECOND CONVERGENCE LINE EXTENDS FROM SW FL TO THE EXTREME NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHALLOW TO MODERATE CNVTN CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND THE TO NW OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH. THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE OVERNIGHT INTO A MORE N TO S WEAK TROUGH...AS THE N PORTIONS DRIFTS W...AND EXTENDS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER MEANDERS OVER THE W GULF. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W SUN THROUGH MON INTO THE W CENTRAL WATERS AS HIGH PRES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC RIDGES WEAKLY INTO THE GULF AND THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WRN CARIB PUSHES THE S PORTIONS W. EXPECTING MOSTLY 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES E TO W ALONG 29N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING S OF THE BOUNDARY FOR 2-3 DEGREES...BERING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. A REINFORCING FRONTAL TROUGH IS SINKING S INTO THE AREA TODAY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO MERGE WITH THE FIRS TROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH SUN....MAINTAINING LLVL FORCING AND ACTIVE CNVTN. FURTHER S...ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N CENTRAL ATLC SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS RIDGE WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT N PUSHING THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH NW LEAVING AN E TO W RIDGE FROM 31N60W TO 30N81W BY SUNRISE WED. SW FLOW NW OF RIDGE AND SE OF FRONTAL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGH SUN BEFORE LIFTING N AND MAINLY OUT OF AREA. ELY FLOW WELL S OF THE RIDGE WILL MAX AT 15 TO 20 KT THROUGHOUT SE BAHAMAS AND ATLC WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WIND SURGES WITH TROPICAL WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE FAR WRN CARIB HAS BEGUN TO MOVE INLAND ACROSS NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND INTO THE YUCATAN BY MORNING. A MODEST WIND SURGE WITH THIS WAVE PAST DAYS HAS DIMINISHED WITH BUOY 42057 BEHIND IT ONLY SHOWING 3 FT. A SECOND WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HAITI HAS BECOME MUCH MORE N TO S ALIGNED PAST 36 HOURS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE QUICKLY W AT ABOUT 17 KT. AN E-SE WIND SURGE BEHIND THE WAVE NEAR 20 KT HAS KICKED UP SEAS AGAIN TO 6-7 FT AND WILL BUILD TO 6-8 FT BY MORNING N OF 13N. THE WAVE WILL SLOW SOMEWHAT AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE FAR EPAC MONSOON CIRCULATION WITH N PORTION AND WIND SURGE CONTINUING TO MOVE WNW AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE MON MORNING. WIND SURGE AND ASSOCIATED SEAS WILL SHIFT W TO THE W CENTRAL AND W CARIB SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT WITH THIS. THE N PORTION OF A WEAKENING WAVE WAS ALONG 52W THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WITH ANOTHER PULSE OF FRESH 20 KT WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT. THE LOW PRES CENTER LEFT BEHIND BY THIS WAVE WAS ALONG 8.5N35W THIS AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PICKED UP WITH NEXT APPROACHING WAVE OFF OF AFRICA DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...AND WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE THE INTERACTION. A VERY STRONG LOW TO MID LEVEL WIND SURGE WITH THIS WAVE WILL EVENTUALLY OUTRUN AND GET AHEAD OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTERS ALONG THE ITCZ...AND SHOULD BEGIN TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE WITH ELY SFC WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS 8-9 FT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING