000 AGXX40 KNHC 291858 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 258 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT DRIFTED OFFSHORE OF WRN FLORIDA NOW EXTENDS SW INTO THE SE GULF AS A 1023 MB HIGH ALONG THE S LA COAST BUILDS S AND SE ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS HAS INDUCED AN AREA OF NLY FLOW FROM THE FROM THE MOUTH OF THE MS TO NEAR APALACHICOLA S TO 26N WHERE SEAS HAD BUILT THIS MORNING TO 3-4 FT...AND WELL ABOVE THE 2 FT OF WWIII. OTHERWISE MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-5 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF IN ELY WIND WAVE. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF FRI AS A FRONTAL TROUGH CLIPS THE FAR NE PART FRI THROUGH SUN. AS THIS OCCURS WINDS WILL SLACKEN ACROSS THE NE AND SW AND LEAVE LIGHT WINDS OF 5-15 KT PERSISTING THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS BECOMING 1-3 FT ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF FRI THROUGH SUN. SW N ATLC... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS W TO E...JUST TO THE N OF THE AREA FROM 32N64W EWD...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF THE BOUNDARY TO 28N IN THE SW TO WLY LLVL FLOW. A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL W-SW TO NEAR 27N60W AND THEN WWD TO THE NW BAHAMAS. S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT WITH 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS ALONG AND N OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE RIDGE RETREATING EASTWARD FRI THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FRONTAL TROUGH THAT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES FRI THROUGH SUN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SW TO W 10-15 KT OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT E OF 75W FRI AND SAT. ALSO EXPECT E-SE WINDS OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT S OF 21N MAINLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SURGE APPROACHING THE CARIBBEAN TODAY WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIB BASIN NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE WIND SURGE AND ASSOCIATED WIND SWELL GRADUALLY BRUSHING SE SECTIONS OF THE AREA BY 48 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL WAVE RELOCATED A BIT FURTHER W THIS MORNING TO TO S OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ALONG 74W...AND SHOULD MOVE W-NW AND INTO CENTRAL AMERICA LATE FRI MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FIRING WITH AND AHEAD OF THE WAVE IN RESPONSE TO WWD MOVING TUTT LOW WILL REMAIN ACTIVE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELY WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE WITH AND BEHIND THE WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB WITH MAX SEAS 7 TO NEAR 8 FT. 15 KT WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EXCEPT S OF 11N WHERE 5-10 KT VARIABLE WINDS EXIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY IS VERY ACTIVE CONVECTIVELY...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 16N. 1300 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED NE WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG A NARROW BAND BETWEEN 13.5N AND 16N ...WITH WINDS DECREASING QUICKLY TO THE S. THE WAVE REMAINS STRONGLY TILTED SW TO NE...AND WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI THEN WILL REACH TO ALONG 65W FRI NIGHT...AND TO ALONG 67W SAT MORNING. THE 20-25 KT WIND SURGE WILL ENTER THE NE AND E CARIB AHEAD OF THE WAVE TONIGHT AND SHIFT W THROUGH FRI NIGHT...BUILDING SEAS 6-8 FT ACROSS THE E CARIB AND UP TO 10 FT IN THE ATLC PASSAGES. OTHERWISE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9 FT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SAT DUE TO A LONG NE-E FETCH OF 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND ATLC HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA. THE SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING