000 AGXX40 KNHC 280751 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 350 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010 UPDATED FOR ASCAT DATA AND MENTION OF SEAS IN NW CARIBBEAN SECTION MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0600 UTC A 1021 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 28N88W WITH A RIDGE W TO NE TEXAS...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WAS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 24N97W TO 18N95W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING WINDS FROM A GENERAL E-SE DIRECTION OVER A WIDE SWATH OF THE GULF... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN HALF WHERE WINDS ARE SE-S AND IN THE NE PORTION WHERE THEY ARE W TO NW. LATEST OBSERVED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE FAR NE AND NW PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...AND IN THE WESTERN PORTION FROM 22N TO 27N WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. IN COMPARING THE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WITH THE OBSERVED SEA STATE...VERY LITTLE IS NOTED IN THE WAY OF DIFFERENCES. BASED ON THIS WILL STAY CLOSE FOR GUIDELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH REMAINS ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN SHIFTS SW THROUGH SUN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NE WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALONG WITH LOW SEA STATE VALUES DURING THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH. THE RIDGE SERVES AS THE DIVIDER OF WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT W OF BAHAMAS AND NE-E 10-15 KT TO THE E BAHAMAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0244 UTC LAST NIGHT AGAIN INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SAME OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED SEAS OF 2-4 FT MOST ALL AREAS...EXCEPT S OF ABOUT 23N E OF BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD FRI THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES FRI THROUGH SUN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE POSSIBLY ALONG AND N OF 30N AND E OF 77W. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 4-7 FT N OF 30N E OF 76W FRI AND SAT...AND SHIFTS THEM TO THE FAR NE WATERS BY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...UPDATED BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 77W WITH SOME INDICATION OF NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE...E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 18N AS NOTED IN THE ASCAT PASS AND CONFIRMED BY A COUPLE OF SHIPS IN THAT AREA. SEAS RANGE 5-8 FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N E OF 70W. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT IN THE SW ZONE...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUE NEAR 13N79W. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND W OF 70W...AND 3-5 FT PRETTY MUCH OVER THE REMAINDER THESE AREAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING W 12 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING TODAY AND TONIGHT...REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND THU NIGHT... AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION FRI AND SAT TO W OF THE AREA LATE SAT INTO SUN. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE S OF 15N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE LATITUDINAL EXTENT AND INCREASED CONVECTION...IS WELL E OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE IS PROJECTED TO ENTER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THAT ZONE THROUGHOUT THU BEFORE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE FRI AND SAT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE WINDS INCREASE WITH THIS WAVE...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING 8-10 FT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI...AND SUBSIDING TO 8 FT SAT AND TO 7 FT SUN. SEAS MAY BUILD UP TO 7 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE NE WATER OF THE CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT...THEN SHIFT TO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN IN TANDEM WITH THE WAVE. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE