000 AGXX40 KNHC 280730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EDT WED JUL 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AT 0600 UTC A 1021 MB HIGH WAS ANALYZED NEAR 28N88W WITH A RIDGE W TO NE TEXAS...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH WAS OVER THE SW GULF FROM 24N97W TO 18N95W. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING WINDS FROM A GENERAL E-SE DIRECTION OVER A WIDE SPANSE OF THE GULF... WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN HALF WHERE WINDS ARE SE-S AND IN THE NE PORTION WHERE THEY ARE W TO NW. LATEST OBSERVED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE FAR NE AND NW PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE...AND IN THE WESTERN PORTION FROM 22N TO 27N WHERE SEAS ARE HIGHER IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE. IN COMPARING THE LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WITH THE OBSERVED SEA STATE...VERY LITTLE IS NOTED IN THE WAY OF DIFFERENCES. BASED ON THIS WILL STAY CLOSE FOR GUIDELINE FOR THIS FORECAST. AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THE HIGH REMAIN ABOUT STATIONARY THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN SHIFTS SW THROUGH SUN AS A FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NE WATERS. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE ALONG WITH LOW SEA STATE VALUES DURING THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO 1021 MB HIGH. THE RIDGE SERVES AS THE DIVIDER OF WIND DIRECTION THROUGHOUT. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT W OF BAHAMAS AND NE-E 10-15 KT TO THE E BAHAMAS. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0244 UTC LAST NIGHT AGAIN INDICATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SAME OBSERVATIONS ALSO SHOWED SEAS OF 2-4 FT MOST ALL AREAS...EXCEPT S OF ABOUT 23N E OF BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO RETREAT EASTWARD FRI THROUGH SUN IN RESPONSE TO A FRONTAL TROUGH THAT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SE UNITED STATES FRI THROUGH SUN. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE POSSIBLY ALONG AND N OF 30N AND E OF 77W. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 4-7 FT N OF 30N E OF 76W FRI AND SAT...AND SHIFTS THEM TO THE FAR NE WATERS BY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0240 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 77W WITH SOME INDICATION OF NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE...E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 19N WITH SEAS OF 5-8 FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N E OF 70W. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT IN THE SW ZONE... WITH THE HIGHEST NEAR 13N79W. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND W OF 70W...AND 3-5 FT PRETTY MUCH OVER THE REMAINDER THESE AREAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES MOVING W 12 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT...AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THU INTO FRI AND W OF THE AREA EARLY FRI. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF WAVE S OF 15N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE LATITUDINAL EXTENT...IS WELL E OF THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND ENTER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THAT ZONE THROUGHOUT THU BEFORE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT INCREASING WINDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 9 FT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE