000 AGXX40 KNHC 270717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT TUE JUL 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 27N E OF 93W...WHILE A SURFACE IS OVER THE MIDDLE SECTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING WINDS FROM A GENERALLY E-SE DIRECTION TO SE-S OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF...AND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. LATEST OBSERVED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE FAR NE AND NW PORTIONS WHERE SEAS ARE IN THE 1-2 FT RANGE ...OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF WHERE THEY RANGE 3-5 FT AND IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE SW GULF WHERE THEY ARE THE HIGHEST AT 4-6 FT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 0000 UTC LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE IN GENERAL WITH SEAS THROUGHOUT. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY S TUE AND WED...AND REFORM AS A HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH FRI AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE FAR NE WATERS AND THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ALONG WITH LOW SEA STATE VALUES DURING THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 27N70W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE RIDGE SERVES AS THE DEMARCATION WITH RESPECT TO WIND DIRECTION. CURRENT AND LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT S OF THE RIDGE WINDS ARE E-SE 10-15 KT W OF BAHAMAS AND NE-E 10-15 KT TO THE E BAHAMAS. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0124 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE WITH LIKELY SAME SITUATION NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE OBSERVATIONS ARE REVEALING SEAS OF 2-4 FT MOST ALL AREAS...EXCEPT S OF ABOUT 23N E OF BAHAMAS WHERE SEAS ARE 3-5 FT. MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY S AND WEAKEN THROUGH WED...THEN TO E OF 70W BY SAT IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE UNITED STATES FRI AND SAT. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE ALONG AND N OF 30N AND E OF 77W. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS TO 3-5 FT N OF 30N E OF 76W FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0300 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOW E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 76W AND 83W. NE-E WINDS OF 25-30 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SLACKEN SOME THROUGH THE MORNING. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN ZONE ...E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE CONFINED TO S OF 18N WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N E OF 76W. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-13 FT IN THE SW ZONE BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. SEAS ARE 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE S OF 18N AND W OF 70W...AND 3-5 FT PRETTY MUCH OVER THE REMAINDER THESE AREAS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W/58W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN REACH NEAR 65W TONIGHT...NEAR 72W WED...AND TO NEAR 80W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN LATE THU INTO FRI AND W OF THE AREA EARLY FRI. PRESENTLY...SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 180 NM E OF WAVE S OF 15N. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE...CURRENTLY SHOWING A LARGE LATITUDINAL EXTENT...IS WELL E OF THE AREA OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND ENTER THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU...AND MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THAT ZONE THROUGHOUT THU BEFORE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FRI...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT INCREASING WINDS WITH THIS WAVE...WITH SEAS POSSIBLY BUILDING UP TO 9 FT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE