000 AGXX40 KNHC 260729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 325 AM EDT MON JUL 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA ALONG 29N. BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE SHOWING WINDS FROM A GENERALLY E-SE DIRECTION TO SE-S OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS REVEALS SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE FAR NE AND NW WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE TO A A MINIMUM OF 1 FOOT. LATEST WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE APPEAR PRETTY REASONABLE WITH SEAS ...EXCEPT FOR THE MIDDLE AND FAR WESTERN SECTIONS WHERE IT IS ABOUT 2 FT BELOW OBSERVED VALUES. SAME APPLIES TO WESTERN STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE SLIGHTLY S TUE AND WED...AND REFORM AS A HIGH CENTER OVER THE NW WATERS THROUGH FRI AS A TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE FAR NE WATERS AND THU AND FRI. WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ALONG WITH LOW SEA STATE VALUES DURING THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 28N72W WITH A RIDGE W TO 80W. WINDS ARE GENERALLY E TO SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 76W WHERE WINDS ARE SE 10-15 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM 0144 UTC INDICATES A POCKET OF NE-E 20 KT CONFINED BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH SEEPAGE INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT S OF 25N TO 2-4 FT N OF 25N AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS. MODELS FORECAST THE HIGH TO RIDGE TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY S THROUGH TUE...THEN SE TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WED AND THU IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES TO ALONG THE SE STATES THU AND FRI. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO BECOME SW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS CHANGING VERY LITTLE...IT AT ALL. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT SHOULD CONTINUE BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH EARLY THU UNDER A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH A COUPE OF ASCAT PASSES FROM LATE LAST NIGHT HAVE REVEALED THAT STRONGEST WINDS ARE FOUND OVER THE CENTRAL AND NE PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF ABOUT 70W WHERE E 20-25 KT WINDS HAVE BEEN AND ARE CURRENTLY NOTED. IN ADDITION THE ASCAT DATA ALSO REVEALED NE-E 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST BETWEEN 72W AND 74W. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N E OF 70W. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 66W AND 84W. SEAS OF 5-7 FT WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LOWER SEAS...IN THE RANGES OF 3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN AND NW CARIBBEAN ZONES AND ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE WESTERN SECTION OF THE CARIBBEAN INDUCING SCATTERED TSTMS THERE ALONG WITH AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE PRES GRADIENT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0322 UTC LAST NIGHT SHOWED A SOLID SWATH OF E-SE 20 KT WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 83W. THIS AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE TO W OF THE CARIBBEAN BY TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. A TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA IS SLOWLY MOVING W...BUT IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND ENTER THE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU AND FRI FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 9 FT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE