000 AGXX40 KNHC 250617 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT SUN JUL 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE REMNANT LOW OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE IS JUST SE OF THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N88W 1011 MB MOVING NW ABOUT 12 KT. BUOYS 420240...42364 AND 42376 TO THE NE OF THE LOW ARE REPORTING SE 20 KT WINDS WITH SEAS TO 6 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE SE LOUISIANA COAST LATER THIS MORNING. BESIDE THE BUOY REPORTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANT LOW...OTHER OBSERVATIONS FROM THROUGHOUT THE AREA ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE AN ENHANCED GRADIENT THERE IS ALLOWING FOR E WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WHERE SEAS ARE 4-6 FT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT WITH LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS REVEALING SEAS ON THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF THE FAR NW WATERS WHERE SEAS ARE 2 FT AND TO THE SE OF A LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY TO THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SEAS RANGE 2-3 FT. LATEST NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE LOOKS PRETTY REASONABLE WITH RESPECT TO OBSERVED SEASTATE...ALTHOUGH MAY BE ABOUT 2 FT UNDONE WITH SEAS NE OF BONNIE...AND ABOUT 2-3 FT LOW WITH SEAS NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ONCE BONNIE MOVES INLAND...AN ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD WESTWARD ALONG 30N THROUGH MON...THEN SLIDE S TO NEAR 28N TUE THROUGH THU. A TROUGH CURRENTLY SE OF THE GULF OVER CENTRAL CUBA WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF TONIGHT...TO THE MIDDLE GULF MON AND MON NIGHT...AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE AND WED FOLLOWED BY ENHANCED E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 9 FT MAINLY IN SW ZONE AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NW ZONE TUE AND WED BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 3-5 FT THU. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDS W TO NEAR 78W FROM A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 28N67W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE S TO ALONG 28N TODAY THROUGH TUE...THEN BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED. BY THU A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE WILL RESPONSE BY SHIFTING E SOME AS GLOBAL MODELS PORTRAY. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER S CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W AS IT MOVES W AT 20 TO 25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N78W SW ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. MODELS TRACK THE TROUGH WESTWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE SW WATERS AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT. THE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE E TO SE WIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT ALREADY PRESENT ACROSS THESE WATERS AS CONFIRMED BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 0200 UTC LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE GENERALLY E TO SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE AREA S OF 25N W OF 76W AS DESCRIBED ABOVE WITH E TO SE 15-20 KT AND S OF 24N E OF 76W WHERE WINDS ARE NE TO E 15 KT. LATEST BUOY REPORTS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT S OF 25N E OF 76W...FROM 26N TO 29N W OF 77W TO 4-7 FT S OF 25N W OF 76W...TO 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SW PORTION WILL BE UNDER RATHER LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE PREVAILING. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FOR THE MOST PART WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE A LARGE AREA OF 20-25 KT E WINDS WITH A POCKET OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BETWEEN 71W AND 74W. NE TO E WINDS 15-20 KT ARE NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA N OF 16N E OF 75W...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LATEST SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 9-11 FT IN THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 72W AND 77W AND 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. SEAS OF 6-7 FT WERE NOTED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LOWER SEAS...IN THE RANGES OF 3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ELSEWHERE IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND 2-3 FT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WERE NOTED AS WELL. A TROPICAL WAVE VOID OF MOISTURE IS APPROACHING 70W MOVING W ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE TO 72W THIS AFTERNOON... NEAR 74W TONIGHT...AND ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED REACHING THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE WED AND THU AND INLAND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND HONDURAS LATE THU. THE WAVE SHOULD PASS UNDER A RATHER PRONOUNCED MID UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY ALONG 80W BY MON WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR VERY DEEP CONVECTION PRESENTLY OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN TO PROLONG ITSELF AS IT TRANSLATE WESTWARD. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA IS SLOWLY MOVING W... BUT IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED AND ENTER THE THE EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU FOLLOWED BY SURGE OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 9 FT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE