000 AGXX40 KNHC 241734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010 UPDATED DEPRESSION THREE TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AND THE WARNINGS SECTION FOR BREAKPOINTS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO....T.D. BONNIE WIND FIELD CURRENTLY LIMITED TO 20 TO 25 KT AND ONLY WITHIN ABOUT 60 NM OF CENTER. ACCORDING TO ALL SURFACE REPORTS THIS MORNING MAX SEAS WERE 8 FT AT 12Z BUT WILL BUILD POSSIBILITY OF 7-10 FT INTO FORECASTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL... ESPECIALLY AS CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FLARING. WILL DROP WINDS BELOW 20 KT SEAS BELOW 8 FT N CENTRAL WATERS QUICKLY AFTER LANDFALL SUN MORNING. COASTAL TROUGH OVER SW GULF EXPECTED TO MEANDER THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN MOVE INLAND AND DISSIPATE. HOWEVER VERY STRONG TSTMS ARE CURRENTLY FLARING WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS INDICATING BROAD LOW PRES...BUT OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL PRES IN AREA IS RISING. ATLC RIDGE WILL BUILD W OVER N GULF IN WAKE OF BONNIE LANDFALL...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY FOR EXACT LAT OF RIDGE AXIS SO WILL JUST MENTION E-W RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS FOR NOW. SW N ATLC... AN E-W RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 31N IS FORECAST TO SHIFT S TO ALONG 28.5N SUN AND BUILDING W ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LOW OVER SE BAHAMAS NOW HAS A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION ACROSS E CUBA...BUT ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS AND PRECIP AREA EXTENDS E TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THUS...MENTIONED A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING W THROUGH BAHAMAS THROUGH SUN...ACCOMPANIED BY ELY 15-20 KT...WITH GUIDANCE WASHING OUT ALL OF ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT BY SUN NIGHT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVER WATERS N OF 27N AROUND RIDGE...BUT MIXED WITH SOME REMNANT SE SWELL THOUGH TUE. BY THEN A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE SE AND STALL OVER WATERS S OF BERMUDA AND SLIGHTLY N OF E-W RIDGE BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A SW-NW 10 KT WIND SHIFT. SW WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT TUE NIGHT N OF 29N. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... W EDGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W THIS MORNING SEEMS TO HAVE SLOWED A LITTLE SINCE FRI. WILL MOVE WAVE W AT 5 DEG EACH DAY WHICH WILL TAKE IT W OF GULF OF HONDURAS AROUND SUNSET WED. ISOLATED TSTMS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF WAVE AXIS. ELY WINDS ARE ENHANCED W OF WAVE AXIS TO ABOUT 77W THIS MORNING WITH THIS AREA EXPECTED TO SHIFT W OVER CENTRAL AND W WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE RELAXING SOME TUE NIGHT INTO WED. UPPER LOW/TROUGH OVER SE BAHAMAS ENHANCING CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION NW CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. NEXT WAVE OVER CENTRAL ATLC NOT IMPRESSIVE THIS MORNING WITH ONLY 15 KT PER ASCAT PASS. WARNINGS... SW ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON