000 AGXX40 KNHC 240730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 24 2010 UPDATED DEPRESSION THREE TO TROPICAL STORM BONNIE AND THE WARNINGS SECTION FOR BREAKPOINTS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE NOW DIMINISHED TO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.N 83.4W AT 24/0300 UTC WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO NEAR 27.7N 85.7W AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN STRENGTHEN AGAIN INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 29.2N 88.5W BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BOONIE IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND THE SE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 30.5N 90.5W BY DAYBREAK ON SUN. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING ARE SHOWING THE STRONGEST GRADIENT AND WINDS S OF ABOUT 26N E OF WHERE WINDS ARE SE 20-25 KT E OF 84W AND NE 20-25 KT W OF 84W. LATEST SEASTATE ANALYSIS SHOWS SEAS OF 3-5 FT S OF 92W EXCEPT A MAXIMUM OF 7 FT WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF FROM 22N TO 27N W OF 94W. LOWER SEAS ARE NOTED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS N OF 27N AND E OF 91W WHERE THEY RANGE 2-3 FT. GLOBAL MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM AGREE THAT BONNIE REMAINS A WEAK SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NW THROUGH THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. IF IT DOES REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AS LATEST ADVISORY STATES...THEN WILL HAVE TO EXPECT HIGHER WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THEN DEPICTED BY MODELS AND THE NOAA WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE WHICH PRESENTLY INDICATE THAT SEAS REMAIN RATHER LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD THAT BONNIE REMAINS AN ENTITY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONCE BONNIE MOVES INLAND OR DISSIPATES...AN ATLC RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD ALONG 30N WESTWARD TO LOUISIANA. A TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO THE FAR SE WATERS SUN...AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF MON AND TUE. A SURGE OF INCREASING SE WINDS MAY FOLLOW IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. SW N ATLC... MAIN FEATURE NOW IS A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS ALONG 30N FROM A 1023 MB HIGH E OF THE AREA NEAR 30N54W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DROP S TO ALONG 29N SUN THEN BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODELS SUGGEST. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST N OF HISPANIOLA MOVING W 20 TO 25 KT. A SURFACE TROUGH MAY BE FORMING ALONG 72W S OF 25N...AND THIS MAY BE THE FEATURE THAT MODELS TAKE WESTWARD ACROSS THE SW WATERS AND INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUN. CURRENTLY...A FEW SHIP SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0330 UTC VERIFIED AN AREA OF E-SE WINDS 20-25 KT EXISTS S OF 24N BETWEEN 65W AND 72W. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL APPROACHING 60W WILL MAY BRUSH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TUE WITH YET ANOTHER QUICK SURGE OF E WINDS BEHIND IT. ELSEWHERE WINDS ARE GENERALLY E TO SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT W OF 76W WHERE A STRONGER GRADIENT SUPPORTS SE 15-20 KT...AND THE AREA OF WIND MENTIONED E OF THE POSSIBLE TROUGH ALONG 72W. SEAS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION ARE STILL IN THE PROCESS OF SUBSIDING IN THE WAKE OF BONNIE. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE 3-5 FT...EXCEPT NEAR THE SE BAHAMAS WHERE A MAXIMUM OF 6 FT WAS NOTED AND OVER THE N CENTRAL PORTION WHERE SEAS ARE LOWER...IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE. MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH THE EXCEPTIONS OF STRONGER ELY SURGES BEHIND THE TROUGH AND TROPICAL WAVE...WILL BE UNDER RATHER LIGHT WIND AND SEAS CONDITIONS MON AND TUE OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FOR THE MOST PART WINDS ARE RATHER LIGHT...EXCEPT OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN WHERE AN AREA OF 20 KT E WINDS WAS EVIDENT IN THE 0230 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM LAST NIGHT...AND OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WHERE NE TO E 20 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING. MAXIMUM SEAS ARE UP TO 9 FT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AN MAY POSSIBLY BUILD UP TO 10 OR 11 FT DURING THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 60W S OF 21N IS MOVING W AT 12 KT. THIS WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON AND TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA APPROACHING 38W/39W SHOULD MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ084...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N AND TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUN N OF 28N... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE