000 AGXX40 KNHC 181705 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN JUL 18 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH IS ALONG 94W IN THE SW GULF OF MEXICO AND BAY OF CAMPECHE HELPING TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A TROUGH WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE IN THIS SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PUSHED JUST W OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS BOTH OUT AHEAD OF AND LAGGING BEHIND THIS FEATURE. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO PROPAGATE INTO THE S MIDDLE GULF TONIGHT THEN DISSIPATE ON MON WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE REMAINING S OF THE AREA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS OVER THE N GULF WATERS ALONG 30N AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON AFTERNOON REACHING THE MIDDLE GULF TUE THEN THE W GULF WED. EXPECT ANOTHER SURGE OF E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT IN THE SE GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH MON NIGHT AND TUE. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SE GULF WED NIGHT AND THU WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS...UP TO 25 KT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA /GULF STREAM WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 7-9 FT IN THE STRAITS WED AND THU. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W IN THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN W OF THE AREA TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 74W WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING NEAR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 300-400 NM E OF THE WAVE ALTHOUGH THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT BY EARLY MON AS THE WAVE SIGNATURE WEAKENS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE THEN WILL MOVE W OF THE AREA WED. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 59W/60W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING N OF 15N MOVING OVER THE NE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND APPROACHING THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTION MAY BREAK OFF INTO A TROUGH MOVING NW OF THE AREA ON MON. NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS OF 8-11 FT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY TUE. MEANWHILE THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN EARLY MON THROUGH TUE REACHING ALONG 75W WED THEN SLOWING DOWN SLIGHTLY AS IT TAKES MORE OF A NW TRACK REACHING 78W THU AND 82W FRI. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOP WITH THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A FOURTH TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF THE AREA NEAR THE W AFRICA COAST LOOKS TO APPROACH 55W LATE WED MOVING TO ALONG 57W THU...IF IT SURVIVES ITS LONG TREK ACROSS THE OPEN ATLC WATERS. SW N ATLC... THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE N OF CUBA AND JUST SE OF SE FLORIDA. A TROUGH IS IN THE E PORTION ALONG 69W/70W AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT THEN THE BAHAMAS MON PUSHING W OF THE AREA BY MON NIGHT. E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE OR TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SE PORTION LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE THEN ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. E WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL EXPAND TO JUST S OF 27N ALONG WITH SEAS OF 8-13 FT MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND SEAS SUBSIDING ON THU AS THE WAVE/TROUGH MOVE W OF THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SE PORTION THU. MEANWHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES ALONG 30N THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIFT N OF THE AREA MON THROUGH THU WITH PRIMARILY E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION AND SE SWELLS OF 4-7 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY