000 AGXX40 KNHC 171713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT JUL 17 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROUGH IN THE W GULF ALONG 95W WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE W EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING NEAR THE TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTS TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO FIRE UP NEAR THE TROUGH ALTHOUGH NEARBY BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO 5-10 KT. OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO 29N90W. THE RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NORTH ALONG 30N BY SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES THE SE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE MON REACHING THE MIDDLE GULF TUE AND THEN THE W GULF WED. EXPECT ANOTHER EASTERLY SURGE OF 20 KT WINDS IN THE SE GULF WED THROUGH THU BEHIND THE TROUGH AS ATLC RIDGING TIGTHENS UP E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK 1010 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED OVER THE E CENTRAL NICARAGUAN COAST WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NW INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND TO THE S INTO THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN. THESE FEATURES WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE W AND INLAND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE NW CARIBBEAN OUT AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. PERSISTENT CONVECTION OVER JAMAICA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN CUBA WILL RESULT IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING LIKELY AS THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE SAME AREAS FOR MANY CONSECUTIVE HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 77W/78W TONIGHT THEN TO NEAR 80W/81W SUN EVENING BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED/MERGES WITH THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 64W. THIS WAVE IS ALSO GENERATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY E OF 70W WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRING OVER THE NE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE E CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON AND INTO THE W CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT REMAIN CONFINED N OF 16N E OF 75W WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF THE EASTERN WINDWARD AND NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. THESE STRONGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS E OF THE AREA ALONG 49W/50W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 67W MON THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 72W AND THEN TO NEAR 75W BY LATE WED. MEANWHILE A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FRACTURE OFF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE AND THEN MOVE NW THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TONIGHT EXITING THE AREA TO THE NW MON EVENING. EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8-12 FT. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH IS IN THE SE PORTION FROM 24N68W TO THE N CENTRAL COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. CONVECTION IS LOCATED MAINLY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS DUE TO SW SHEAR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TONIGHT THEN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN NIGHT AND WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON. EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT NEAR THE TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 8-10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SE PORTION LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THROUGH WED THEN THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU. EXPECT A LARGE SWATH OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND ACCOMPANYING SEAS OF 8-12 FT S OF 27N AS THIS NEXT TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. OTHERWISE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION...A RIDGE STEMS FROM 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N62W TO 30N70W TO 30N81W. THE RIDGE WILL LIFT TO JUST N OF THE AREA MON THROUGH WED WHILE THE TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION. EXPECT MAINLY E-SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT N OF 27N THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL REMAIN 4-7 FT AS SE SWELL CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE INTO THE N PORTION. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY