000 AGXX40 KNHC 161830 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 PM EDT FRI JUL 16 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A VIGOROUS TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM 30N91W TO 21N91W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE TROUGH WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE E GULF WATERS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE W-NW. NEARBY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 24N E OF THE TROUGH WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE LATEST NAM40 MODEL RUN. EXPECT THIS AREA OF STRONGER WINDS TO EVENTUALLY DIMINISH BY 24 HOURS AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES ALTHOUGH THE NAM40 IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRES ALONG THE TROUGH ON SAT WITH NO OTHER MODEL SOLUTION INDICATING SUCH. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO SAT TONIGHT WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W-NW THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS AT THE SURFACE. SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REDEVELOP OVER THE GULF BY EARLY SUN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 27N EARLY SUN THEN WILL SHIFT N OF THE AREA MON THROUGH WED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ON MON MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS AND THEN W GULF BY WED. MEANWHILE A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND MOVE INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE TUE THEN MAY EMERGE INTO THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE WATERS ON WED. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH AND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING NW INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICA COAST WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE AREA HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH SUN THEN WILL LIKELY ENCOUNTER AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W/69W. THE WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO ALONG 71W EARLY SAT THEN WILL REACH TO ALONG 74W EARLY SUN THEN WILL ACCELERATE AS IT MOVES TO ALONG 78W BY EARL MON. THEREAFTER IT IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH AND THEN WILL CONTINUE ON TO THE NW AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS BY LATE MON THEN INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE TUE INTO EARLY WED. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ATLC RIDGING N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LOWER PRES OVER THE CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EXTENDING FROM NEAR 22N63W TO PUERTO RICO. A 1418 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH E-SE WINDS OF 15 KT E OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THIS FEATURE WILL EXIT THE AREA THIS EVENING. A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 55W WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE E CARIBBEAN BY LATE SUN INTO EARLY MON. THE WAVE WILL REACH TO ALONG 69W BY EARLY TUE THEN TO ALONG 72W BY EARLY WED. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THIS WAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN EVENTUALLY MOVING NW OF THE AREA BY TUE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL THEN APPROACH 55W TUE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION WED. SW N ATLC... ATLC SURFACE RIDGING HAS SHIFTED JUST N OF THE AREA AS EXPECTED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND A 1418 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 25N WITH THE HIGHEST WINDS OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND N OF CUBA AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING THE FAR SE PORTION WITH THE AXIS OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO. AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF THE TROUGH AXIS WITH SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN EASTERLY SWELL. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION THIS WEEKEND MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS SAT THEN ACROSS CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SUN AND INTO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA MON. EXPECT HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS AND SQUALLY CONDITIONS IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS W OF THE TROUGH. ANOTHER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SE WATERS SUN NIGHT MOVING TO JUST N OF PUERTO RICO BY EARLY MON AND TO CENTRAL CUBA BY WED. THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF A LONG EASTERLY FETCH OF 20-25 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION WITH ONLY MINOR BREAKS IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER BETWEEN EACH TROUGH. SE SWELL WILL MANAGE TO PROPAGATE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION AS WELL WITH SEAS OF 4-7 FT IN SE SWELL EXPECTED THERE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY