000
AGXX40 KNHC 121744
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 12 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1016 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR 25N84W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING 
W ACROSS THE GULF. THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N THROUGH THE 
WEEK REACHING TO ALONG 27N TUE NIGHT THEN TO ALONG 29N/30N BY 
THE END OF THE WEEK. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE FAR NW GULF 
WILL REACH 15-20 KT TONIGHT AND AGAIN TUE NIGHT THEN WILL 
DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS MORE TO THE N. DIURNALLY DRIVEN 20 
KT NE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH EVENING WITHIN 90-120 NM OF 
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL BE 
POSSIBLE IN THE SE WATERS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS UP TO 8 FT 
IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND FRI AS A TROPICAL WAVE 
APPROACHES FROM THE E-SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF HONDURAS HAS 
MOVED INLAND AND SW OF THE AREA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE 
W CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ALONG AND 
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND FAR E HONDURAS. 
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD OVER THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS AND CENTRAL CUBA BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS WAVE 
WILL MOVE W THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH 
THE NORTHERN HALF MOVING INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TUE. 
NE-E WINDS OF 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 
10-15 KT S OF 15N THU AND FRI. E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL ALSO BE 
POSSIBLE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WED UNTIL 
THE WAVE PASSES TO THE W.   

IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A TROPICAL WAVE STILL WELL E OF THE 
AREA WILL APPROACH 55W EARLY WED MOVING ACROSS THE TROPICAL N 
ATLC WED NIGHT THEN OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND INTO THE E 
CARIBBEAN EARLY THU. THE WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
BY LATE FRI. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT EXISTS MAINLY OVER THE 
NORTHERN HALF DUE TO STRENGTHENING ATLC RIDGING TO THE N AND 
LOWER PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. A LONG EASTERLY FETCH OF 
20-25 KT WINDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THIS 
AFTERNOON THROUGH THU WITH 8-11 FT COMBINED SEAS. WINDS WILL 
DIMINISH BY LATE FRI AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES W-NW OF THE
AREA.

SW N ATLC...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE WATERS WITH A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 
25N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W AND ANOTHER OVER THE GULF STREAM E OF 
FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTS OFF MORE TO THE N-NE. OTHERWISE 
ATLC SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ALONG 27N THEN WILL 
SHIFT N TO ALONG 29N TUE THEN TO ALONG 31N WED THROUGH FRI. A 
TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE SE WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK AND 
EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT S OF 27N WITH HIGHER 
GUSTS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC RIDGE 
AND WAVE. THE WAVE WILL APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS ON SAT AND THE 
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY