000 AGXX40 KNHC 101807 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 207 PM EDT SAT JUL 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OFF OF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT EXTENDING ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO NEAR THE GUATEMALA BORDER. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL MEXICO TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FROM THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE INTO CENTRAL MEXICO AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS ALONG 26N SUN AND SUN NIGHT AND WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY THROUGH MON THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH TO ALONG 28N TUE THEN TO ALONG 29N WED. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS MON THROUGH WED. DIURNALLY DRIVEN NE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL OCCUR DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON THROUGH WED. 20 KT EASTERLY WINDS WILL FUNNEL THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM THE SW N ATLC LATE TUE THROUGH LATE WED AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER WESTERN NICARAGUA NEAR 12.7N 86.1W. NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS NEAR THE CIRCULATION AND THERE IS CURRENTLY NO EVIDENCE OF AN ASSOCIATED CLOSED SURFACE LOW. NEVERTHELESS VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY STILL OVER THE FAR W CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS RAINFALL WILL BY ACCOMPANIED WITH GUSTY WINDS AND MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING BEFORE THE CIRCULATION MOVES INTO THE E PACIFIC BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED TO THE E ALONG 77W/78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. ANOTHER WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 63W/64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING MAINLY NEAR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 14N. LATEST WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE A LONG FETCH OF EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-30 KT ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION...DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVES AND BUILDING ATLC RIDGING TO THE NE OF THE BASIN. SEAS ARE 8-13 FT COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE LONG FETCH. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND HIGHER SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SAME AREA THROUGH MON THEN WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE EASTERN MOST WAVE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS TO THE W-NW. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 6-9 FT WED THROUGH THU AS THE PARADE OF TROPICAL WAVES ENDS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. SW N ATLC... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING WELL NE OF THE AREA NOW WITH A TRAILING ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH STILL OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE WATERS FROM 31N70W TO 25N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION MOVES NE OF 31N TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. ATLC RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AND EXTEND FROM 31N60W TO 25N79W TONIGHT THEN WILL FLATTEN TO ALONG 27N SUN LIFTING TO THE N TO ALONG 29N/30N MON THEN TO ALONG 31N TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS EARLY SUN THROUGH WED. A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL BE PRESENT S OF 24N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND ATLC RIDGING WITH A LONG EASTERLY FETCH OF 20 KT BECOMING ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 8-11 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS MON THROUGH WED. SOME OF THIS SWELL IN THE RANGE OF 4-7 FT WILL MANAGE TO MOVE W JUST N OF CUBA AS WELL AS THROUGH THE PASSAGES OF THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY