000 AGXX40 KNHC 091845 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 PM EDT FRI JUL 9 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND WILL HOLD NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH NEXT TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS MON AND TUE AS ATLC RIDGING BUILDS WEST INTO THE GULF AND COMBINES WITH PRESENT GULF RIDGING. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE FAR SE GULF WATERS TUE INTO WED DUE TO A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE ATLC RIDGING TO THE N. MEANWHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SW GULF AND WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE W-NW AND INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT. E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT WILL CONTINUE IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SAT THEN WILL DIMINISH BY SUN ONCE THE WAVE PASSES TO THE W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W/68W AND WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN SUN. A THIRD AND STRONGER WAVE IS IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ALONG 60W. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN THEN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE. ALSO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR EACH OF THE THREE WAVES. LATEST WINDSAT AND ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE 20-30 KT WINDS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE THREE WAVES AND STRENGTHENING ATLC RIDGING TO THE N OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LONG AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH OVER THE CARIBBEAN WILL ALLOW FOR SEAS TO BUILD TO 8-12 FT MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SW N ATLC... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE AREA WITH AN ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW POSITIONED RIGHT OVER CAPE HATTERS NORTH CAROLINA AS INDICATED BY KMHX WSR-88D RADAR. SEVERAL SURFACE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND ROTATE UP AROUND THE LOW. ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH ANOTHER EXTENDING FROM 31N72W TO 30N79W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES CAPTURED S-SW WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 29N AND E OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL LIFT TO THE N-NE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW EJECTS OFF INTO THE NORTHERN ATLC DUE TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED BACK OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. ATLC SURFACE RIDGING WILL THEN BE ALLOWED TO BUILD ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG 27N TONIGHT THROUGH SAT THEN WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE N ALONG 29N SUN THROUGH MON THEN TO ALONG 30N BY TUE. THE RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY SE OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS. THE ADVANCING WAVE WILL RESULT IN A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION AND EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT S OF 24N LATE SAT THROUGH TUE. AN INCREASING EASTERLY FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 10 FT BY TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY