000 AGXX40 KNHC 081841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 242 PM EDT THU JUL 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO MADE LANDFALL LATE THIS MORNING AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.0N 97.7W AT 1800 UTC WITH MAX WINDS OF 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ALL ASSOCIATED TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12-24 HOURS AND SE WINDS OF 20-30 KT OVER THE W GULF WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT BY LATE TONIGHT. SEAS REMAIN AT 8-11 FT OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 4-7 FT W OF 95W ON FRI. OTHERWISE EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RESULTANT POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS AND NE MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. EARLIER 0.5 DEGREE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KBRO WSR-88D RADAR INDICATED A POSSIBLE WATERSPOUT/COUPLET MOVING ONSHORE S OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER AND THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WATERSPOUTS OVER THE FAR W GULF AS THE OUTER BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUE TO ROTATE TOWARD THE COAST. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST DISCUSSION PRODUCT...WTNT42 KNHC...FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING FOR FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO. ATLC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE E AND CENTRAL GULF ALONG 26N/27N FRI AND SAT EXPANDING TO THE W GULF WATERS SUN THEN HOLDING IN PLACE THROUGH TUE. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE. SW N ATLC... THE FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS. A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE ARE EVIDENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH ONE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N69W TO 27N72W. A 1342 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN A BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION LOCATED BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. ANOTHER TROUGH IS TO THE W EXTENDING FROM 31N75W TO 29N76W AND A 1522 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WESTERLY WINDS TO 20 KT N OF 30N AND W OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND REFLECTED SURFACE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT TO THE N-NE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR 31N65W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY EARLY SAT. THE RIDGE WILL HOLD NEAR STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION MON AND TUE AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A TROPICAL WAVE TO THE S OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WILL TIGHTEN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W AND AN EARLY MORNING WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED E WINDS OF 20 KT N OF 12N AND E OF THE WAVE AXIS WITH 10-15 KT W OF THE WAVE AXIS. OTHERWISE THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS WAVE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE WHERE THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT REMAINS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE W-NW THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT SLOWING ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES MORE TO THE NW. MEANWHILE RECENT BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ARE INDICATING E-SE WINDS OF 20-25 KT S OF 19N W OF 84W AND THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE SAT THEN WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES E OF THE FIRST DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER LEEWARD ISLANDS. A 1346 UTC ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS CAPTURED NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT W OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE E CARIBBEAN W OF 64W AND E WINDS OF 20 KT E OF THE WAVE AXIS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN AND THEN INTO THE W CARIBBEAN MON INTO TUE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND TO THE W AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE AND ATLC RIDGING NE OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND RESULTANT SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8-11 FT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A THIRD WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC FROM THE E LATE TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY