000 AGXX40 KNHC 080725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT THU JUL 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF HAVE CALMED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY...WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS IN 2 TO 4 FT SEAS. THE EXCEPTION LIES IN THE CENTRAL GULF N OF 29N WHERE S SWELL IN THE 7-8 SECOND RANGE IS STILL ENHANCING SEAS TO 5 TO 7 FT...WITH SHIP NWS0024 REPORTING 7 FT NEAR 29N88W AT 0600 UTC. THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0258 UTC SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 25-30 KT WINDS DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER OF T.D. TWO BY 120-210 NM. THESE PRES GRADIENT INDUCED WINDS AREA DRIVING WAVE HEIGHT IN THE NW GULF TO THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE AT THE MOMENT. MEANWHILE...BUOY 42055 APPROXIMATELY 100 NM S OF T.D. TWO WAS SHOWING 14 KT SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH 4 FT SEAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THU MORNING AS THE SYSTEM HEADS NW TOWARD THE BOARDER OF TEXAS AND NE MEXICO. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 13 FT BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND. PLEASE SEE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST DISCUSSION PRODUCT...WTNT42 KNHC...FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REASONING FOR FOR T.D. TWO. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI WITH LITTLE FANFARE. RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26-27N OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS SAT THROUGH MON...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW LIKELY TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BY MON NIGHT IN THE NW GULF. SW N ATLC... THE FLOW ABOUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 33N71W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH S ALONG 70W TO 27N AND THEN SW THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO 23N78W. THE LOW IS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST AND WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE U.S. COAST N OF THE AREA ON SAT. SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND E OF 70W HAS CAPTURED SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER EASTERN CUBA...SENDING IT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE. MUCH OF THE ENERGY WILL LIFT N OF AREA TODAY AND WRAP INTO THE LOW...ALLOWING ITS SURFACE REFLECTION...CURRENTLY ANALYZED BY OPC AS A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 35N71W...TO DEEPEN SLIGHTLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS AGREE THAT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT TODAY OVER NE WATERS AS THE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THIS LOW AND THE WESTWARD MOVING RIDGE AXIS TO ITS E. ON FRI...THE RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT PLAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT OVER N WATERS BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW AS WELL AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE COAST N OF THE AREA AND THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 15 KT WINDS THROUGH MON. WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN IT AND LOWER PRES OVER SOUTH AMERICA FRI THROUGH MON...ESPECIALLY AS TWO TROPICAL WAVES PASS W TROUGH FAR S WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE 0256 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA ARE ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS THAT ARE CONCENTRATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WAVE NOW THAT THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE HAS BEEN SIPHONED AWAY FROM THE WAVE INTO THE UPPER LOW DOMINATING THE SW N ATLC. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE TODAY AND FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 59W S OF 13N HAS WINDS TO 20 KT ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS N BUILDS SOUTHWESTWARD...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 47N S OF 17N WILL ALSO BUTT AGAINST THIS RIDGE AS IT TRACKS W. WIND SURGES TO 25 KT AND AN INCREASE IN SEAS TO THE 8-10 FT RANGE WILL ACCOMPANY THESE WAVES AS THEY TRACK THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN FRI THROUGH MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER