000 AGXX40 KNHC 070717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT WED JUL 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... OBSERVATIONS WZJC...C6CL6...AND BUOY 42001 SHOW SE TO S WINDS AT 25 TO 30 KT WITH SEAS AT 7-8 FT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 88W AND 91W FROM 26N TO 27N. THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE WAVE HEIGHTS WITH VALUES AROUND 6-9 FT HERE AS OPPOSED TO THE WW3 WHICH HAS 9-11 FT WAVES. THE 00Z GFS IS THE SLOWEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CARRY THE SYSTEM WESTWARD...INSTEAD ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWARD JOG AS IT REACHES THE TX COAST AND KEEPING THE WINDS IN THE NW GULF AT 20 KT INTO FRI EVENING...LONGER THAN ANY OF THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...THE FORECAST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE GFS PARALLEL AND THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH CONTINUE TO CARRY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS. THERE IS SOME TREPIDATION IN GOING AWAY FROM THE GFS WHOLLY FOR IF THE SYSTEM WERE TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT WOULD LIKELY SLOW ITS NW PROGRESS AND KEEP THE WINDS UP OVER THE NW GULF. THE FAVORED SOLUTION IS THE GFS PARALLEL WHICH KEEPS THE WINDS STRONGER LATER INTO FRI THAN THE ECMWF...BUT CARRIES A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW TRACK LIKE TO MODEL CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE PASSES THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND REACHES THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI WITH LITTLE FANFARE. RIDGING BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 26-27N OVER THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... THE FLOW ABOUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA IS DOMINATING THE PATTERN OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY NEAR 33N66W AND EXTENDS A TROUGH SW FROM 30N65W THROUGH 25N70W TO 26N80W. THE LOW IS RETROGRADING TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERLY FLOW S OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND E OF 70W HAS CAPTURED SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA...SENDING IT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ZONE. IN ADDITION...WESTERLY FLOR S OF THE TROUGH AXIS W OF 70W IS PULLING THE REMNANT MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT DISSIPATED IN THIS AREA MON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH OF THESE TROUGHS WILL LIFT N OF AREA BY THU AND WRAP INTO THE LOW. SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 20 KT THU AS THE LOW ALOFT N OF THE AREA REFLECTS AT THE SURFACE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS E MOVES CLOSER. ON FRI...THE RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT PLAYER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WINDS S OF THE RIDGE AXIS WILL INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN IT AND LOWER PRES OVER SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT A WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSING W TROUGH FAR S WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER HAITI ARE ONLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE. THE MAJOR IMPACT OF THIS WAVE APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...SPECIFICALLY HAITI AT THE MOMENT. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE THU AND FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W S OF 13N HAS WINDS TO 20 KT ON ITS NORTHERN EDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE WAVE AS IT MOVES W INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO ITS N SHIFTS SOUTHWARD...INCREASING THE PRES GRADIENT. ANOTHER WAVE...CURRENTLY ALONG 38N S OF 16N WILL ALSO BUTT AGAINST THIS RIDGE AS IT TRACKS W. AS A RESULT OF THESE TROPICAL WAVES...WINDS WILL BUILD TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THU AND FRI...WITH THE WIND SURGE SHIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER