000 AGXX40 KNHC 060729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT TUE JUL 06 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... OBSERVATIONS JUST OFF THE S CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST ALONG WITH ASCAT DATA FROM 0340 UTC CONFIRM 30 KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SMALL AREA OF LOW PRES SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY NW ALONG THE COAST. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT OBSERVATIONS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INLAND THIS MORNING WILL BE RAINFALL AS A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN SEEN NE OF THE LOW CENTER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE HAS PASSED THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND STRETCHES INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 87W S OF 26N. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON ALLOWING THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS WAVE TO BE LURED NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAK TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LINGERING ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. THIS SOLUTION SUGGESTS A MORE ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE E SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BETWEEN IT AND RIDGING OVER THE NE GULF WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BUILD TO THE 25-30 KT RANGE IN THE CENTRAL GULF. THE GFS PARALLEL AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BE SLOWER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE UKMET TO CARRY THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD. THE GFS AND UKMET MAY BE GIVING MORE CREDIT TO THE TROUGHING CURRENTLY IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAN IT WARRANTS BY ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO QUICKLY INCORPORATE THE ENERGY FROM THE WAVE. THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS SEEM MORE REASONABLE. SW N ATLC... A TROUGH LIES N OF THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N75W TO 29N75W. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE OPERATIONAL GFS DEVELOPS A LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 29N68W WED MORNING...BRIEFLY CRANKING OUT 30 KT WINDS AND OVER 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN 6 HOURS WITH THE LOW. THIS APPEARS TO BE GRID SCALE FEEDBACK AND IT IS NOT SUBSTANTIATED BY THE OTHER MODELS. THE PARALLEL GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET FROM 00Z SHOW A MORE OPEN TROUGH AND CARRY MORE OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY E TOWARD FLORIDA THROUGH WED BEFORE ALLOWING IT TO BECOME CAPTURED BY THE SW EDGE OF THE RETROGRADING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 37N60W. IN ADDITION...MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THE ENERGY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH PUERTO RICO WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE UPPER LOW WED/THU WITHOUT COMING CLOSE TO FLORIDA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS...BUT THE TREND SEEMS TO BE TOWARD KEEPING THE LOW LEVEL TROUGHS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND EASTWARD...WITH THESE WEAKER SYSTEMS HOLDING WINDS BELOW 20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W WILL CONTINUE TO BRING 20-25 KT WINDS TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING IN MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONGEST WINDS WILL LINGER BEHIND IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 67W CURRENTLY HAS LITTLE CONVECTION OR WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT...AND IT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET AS IT CONTINUES W THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W HAS A LARGER WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IT ACCORDING TO THE 0014 UTC ASCAT PASS AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING THAT WIND SURGE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE LATER TODAY AND THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN WED THROUGH FRI. YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA ALONG 32W IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER