000 AGXX40 KNHC 051853 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT MON JUL 05 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW THAT THE SMALL LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT FORMED A FEW DAYS OFF A BAROCLINIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEAR 29N91W MOVING SLOWLY N. THE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL S-SW WINDS OF 15 KT WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW IN THE E SEMICIRCLE...AND SW-W 15 KT WINDS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SW QUADRANT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY MOVE INLAND THE LOUISIANA COAST TONIGHT. LATEST OBSERVED SEA STATE ANALYSIS SHOWED MAXIMUM SEAS NOW DOWN TO 4 FT OVER THE AREA WITHIN ABOUT 90 NM E AND SE OF THE LOW. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE-S AT 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN TIP OF CUBA WHERE E-SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 KT TO AT TIMES 20 KT DUE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRES ON THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HIGH PRES NOSING SW FROM THE ATLC INTO THE EASTERN GULF. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-3 FT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF ABOUT 95W FROM 24N TO 27N WHERE SEAS ARE MAXING OUT AT 5 FT...AND OVER THE FAR S CENTRAL WATERS NEAR WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE SEAS ARE BUILDING IN A SE SWELL OF 4-7 FT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IN LOCATED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO LIFT NW ACROSS THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE NW GULF ON WED. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS INTO THE GULF OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT SE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND GULF AND WESTERN SECTION OF THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT THROUGH WED. IF THE AREA OF LOW PRES HOLDS TOGETHER...PRESENT INDICATIONS AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT IS SHOULD MOVE INLAND AROUND THE VICINITY OF THE TEXAS COAST BY EARLY THU. LATEST RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN SUGGEST THIS SCENARIO WITH UKMET ALSO IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. IN THE LONG TERM...THE FORECAST WILL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MAINLY WITH RESPECT TO WINDS AND SEAS WILL WILL HEAVILY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THE FEATURE CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. SW N ATLC... A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W NE TO INLAND NE FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BROKEN ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH BUOY AND SHIP DATA REVEAL THAT WINDS ARE NE-E AT 10 KT N OF THE FRONT WITH SE-S WINDS OF 5-10 KT S OF THE FRONT. THE OPERATIONAL GFS HAS CONTINUED TO TREND TO THE WEAKER SIDE WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE FRONT AS NOTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. REPORTED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT...WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 3-5 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS DUE TO A N SWELL. THIS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE NOAA WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC THIS MORNING. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE DYING STATIONARY FRONT TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...THEN LIFT NE TO A LINE FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT...FROM 31N69W TO 25N74W BY EARLY WED...AND N OF AREA THU. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE ...OR DERIVED TROUGH FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH THE SE WATERS BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PASS ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TUE...TO S OF 24N ALONG 73W WED...THEN SHIFT TO THE SW PORTION THU...AND TO WESTERN CUBA AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE THU AND FRI. IN ITS WAKE...A RIDGE WILL BUILD W TO NEAR THE BAHAMAS BY FRI. WINDS WILL BECOME SW AND INCREASE SOME OVER THE FAR NW WATERS SAT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC... THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS ROUGHLY ALONG 86W/87W MOVING W TO NW AT 15 KT. A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING ALONG WITH BUOY REPORTS SHOWED A BROAD SWATH OF SE TO S 20-25 KT WINDS WITH LIKELY GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE VERY DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OCCURRING IN THIS AREA OF THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS AREA OF LOW PRES WILL TRACK NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON SHIFTING THE AREA OF STRONG SE-S WINDS SLOWLY NWD TO THOSE WATERS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE HAS JUST PASSED THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AND MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THU. AS IT DOES...IT WILL ENHANCE NE TO E TRADES. CONFIDENCE BECOMES LOWER IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WITH THIS WAVE BY WED/THU WHEN THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGHING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WAVE. YET ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA ALONG 45W IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON FRI...AND INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE FRI THROUGH SAT FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASING ELY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS POSSIBLY UP TO 11 FT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE