000 AGXX40 KNHC 041851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 250 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH OIL PLATFORMS DEPICT THE WEAK LOW NEAR 27N90W WITH A PRES OF 1013 MB ONLY DRIFTING W DURING SHORT INTERVALS AT TIME WHILE MOSTLY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO BE ON THE WEST END OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA W AND THEN SW TO THE LOW. THE CYCLONIC FLOW WITH THE LOW NOW APPEARS TO BE RATHER ELONGATED CONFIRMED PARTIALLY ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS OF 15-20 KT ON THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WITH SEAS MAXING OUT TO 5 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE GENERALLY SE TO S 10-15 KT...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN TIP OF CUBA WHERE E-SE WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 15 KT DUE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN BROAD LOW PRES ON THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND HIGH PRES NOSING SW FROM THE ATLC INTO THE EASTERN GULF. WINDS ARE LIGHTER...S TO SW 5-10 KT OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS 2-3 FT. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO LIFT NW AND THEN N TOWARDS THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF S CENTRAL OR SW LOUISIANA MOVING INLAND AND DISSIPATING TO A TROUGH ON MON AFTERNOON IN LINE WITH THE EUROPEAN AND THE GFS PARALLEL MODEL GUIDANCE AS THE STATIONARY FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES. BY TUE...SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRES APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN A SE SWELL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF AND SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE NW GULF. GOING INTO WED THROUGH FRI...STILL A LOT DEPENDS ON ANY EVOLUTION OF UPCOMING TROPICAL ENTITY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WILL MAKE FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS AS SCENARIO SHAPES UP. SW N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N65W TO INLAND CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE PRETTY MUCH NE-E STEADY AT 15 KT WITH A FEW BRIEF SPEEDS OF 20 KT N OF THE FRONT W OF 70W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. OPERATIONAL GFS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS SUGGESTED IN PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL CONTINUE WITH TROUGH DEPICTION INSTEAD AS SHOWN BY THE EUROPEAN AND GFS PARALLEL MODELS. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...FROM THE E TO SE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN PREDOMINATELY A N SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT BUILDING TO 4-6 FT E OF BAHAMAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN G NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA WITH WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WNW THROUGH TONIGHT. A LOW OF 1010 MB IS FORECAST TO FORM ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 19N87W BY MON MORNING...AND TRACK NW. THIS WILL DRAG THE ASSOCIATED WIND AND SEA NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MON EVENING INTO TUE. WILL FOLLOW EURO WITH THIS FEATURE DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHEST REPORTED SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT NEAR 18N81W. SWELLS GENERATED FROM THIS AREA WILL PROPAGATE NW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS BEFORE SUBSIDING. THE NEXT WAVE...RATHER ROBUST...IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON MORNING...AND THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED AND THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI ATTENDANT BY ACTIVE WEATHER. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE