000 AGXX40 KNHC 031902 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH OIL PLATFORMS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WAS SPOTTED YESTERDAY IS NOW 27N88W WITH A PRES OF 1012 MB MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THE LOW IS ON THE WEST END OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA W AND SW TO THE LOW. THE OBSERVATIONS SHOW CYCLONIC FLOW WITH 20 KT MAX WINDS WITHIN 180 NM OF THE LOW IN THE NE QUADRANT...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE LOW IN THE SE QUADRANT. MAXIMUM OBSERVED SEA STATE IF UP TO 7 FT E AND NE OF THE LOW CENTER. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE E TO SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 22N AND W OF 95W WHERE SE TO S 15-20 KT WINDS ARE NOTED...WITH SEAS NOW DOWN TO 6 FT IN THE FAR WESTERN GULF WATERS. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE...EXCEPT 3-5 FT ELSEWHERE NE OF THE LOW CENTER. THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACKING THE LOW WESTWARD GENERALLY THROUGH THE WEAKEN...BUT IT APPEARS BASED ON THE LATEST RUNS THAT IT MAY TURN NW A LITTLE LATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTED BEFORE MOVING NW TOWARDS SW LOUISIANA OR NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER ON MON. THE 12 UTC EUROPEAN RUN NOW LEANS TOWARDS THIS SCENARIO AS WELL AS THE GFS PARALLEL RUN. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HOLD PRES OF 1012 MB WITH THE LOW THROUGH NEXT 24-36 HRS UNTIL EVIDENCE OF DEEPENING. SOME OF THIS HAS PERHAPS BEEN INDICATED DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS DEEP CONVECTION HAS FIRED UP SOME IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE. BY TUE...SE WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE GULF AS A TROPICAL WAVE WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRES APPROACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT SEAS TO INCREASE IN A SE SWELL THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL. THIS TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...PERHAPS SHIFTING WESTWARD INTO THE SW GULF AND SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE NW GULF. IN THE LATTER PERIODS...A LOT DEPENDS ON ANY EVOLUTION OF UPCOMING TROPICAL ENTITY FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WILL MAKE FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS AS SCENARIO SHAPES UP. SW N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA JUST N OF WEST PALM BEACH. BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY DATA HAVE SHOWN AND ARE PRESENTLY INDICATING NE 20 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT W OF 74W AS GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH PRES TO N PREVAILS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT WEAKENS. OPERATIONAL GFS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE FRONT MON AND TAKING IT NE. AS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING...WILL DISCOUNT THIS AS THE OUTLIER AND FORECAST A TROUGH FOR MON AND TUE FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEWD THAT DRIFTS NE. ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT...FROM THE E TO SE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH SEAS OF 3-5 FT IN PREDOMINATELY A N SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT BUILDING TO 5-7 FT IN AN E SWELL TUE THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IN COMBINATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS CREATING NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH SUN. AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS...THE ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS WILL THEN SPREAD NW TOWARDS THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS...TO SOME EXTENT...LIKE TO DEVELOP A LOW AS IT MOVES NW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL AGAIN GO WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUN AND MOVE IT SLIGHTLY NW MON TO OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY TUE. HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 10 FT IN THE SW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ...AND OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE SEAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY FAST APPROACH THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SHOULD ENTER HE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED ENHANCING NE TO E WINDS ALONG WITH BRINGING ACTIVE WEATHER. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE