000 AGXX40 KNHC 021859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW WHAT HAS BECOME A MORE APPARENT LOW PRE FEATURE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 29N84W WITH A PRES OF 1015 MB. THE 15 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE LOW SITUATED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY W TO ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LOUISIANA AND NW TO THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY 42036 AND THE TYNDALL AFB TOWER AT 29N85W ARE REFLECTING THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND THE LOW WITH THE TOWER REPORTING WINDS OUT OF THE N AT 20 KT...AND THE BUOY WITH SW TO W WINDS OF 20 KT. SEAS REMAIN RATHER LOW...IN THE 2-4 FT WITH THESE REPORTING SITES. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE PRETTY MUCH SE 10-15 KT...EXCEPT IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE GULF N OF 21N AND W OF 92W WHERE SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT ARE BEING OBSERVED. SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO LOWER OVER THE WESTERN GULF SINCE THE DEPARTURE OF HURCN ALEX WITH MAXIMUM SEASTATE OF UP TO 8 FT FROM 25N TO 27N W OF 94W. SEAS ELSEWHERE ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE INTO MON...THEN BUILD SOME IN THE SOUTHERN SECTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF TUE INTO WED. AS FOR PROGNOSIS OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW...MODELS AND EVEN THE REGIONAL NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING THE LOW WESTWARD GENERALLY OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS WITH A GENERAL DIRECTION TOWARDS LOUISIANA...HOWEVER IN THE LONGER TERM IT IS DIFFICULT TO GRASP WHAT THE ACTUAL OUTCOME WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE IT MOVES INLAND...IF IT IN DEED WERE TO DO SO. THE NOGAPS TRACKS IT A BIT FURTHER N TO JUST INLAND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA THROUGH EARLY MON THEN DISSIPATES IT...WHILE THE UKMET STALLS IT BRIEFLY S OF PENSACOLA MON BEFORE RESUMING ITS WESTWARD MOTION TUE AND WED NEAR JUST S OF LOUISIANA. THE CANADIAN RUN FROM LAST NIGHT STALLS IT NEAR APALACHICOLA SUN BEFORE TRACKING ENE INTO APALACHEE BAY LATE SUN INTO MON AND SE TOWARDS SW FLORIDA BY EARLY WED. WILL DISCOUNT THIS SOLN FOR NOW AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE OUTLIER. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE PARALLEL VERSION OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN MODEL FOR WINDS (20 KT) AS THE DETERMINISTIC GFS REMAINS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN ITS DISPLAY OF THE WIND FIELD WITH THE LOW. WILL GO WITH A 24 HR FORECAST PRES OF 1012 MB FOR THE LOW...UNTIL THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SHOWER AND TSTMS ACTIVITY NEAR OR AROUND THE CENTER AS OF NOW SINCE IT IS NON-TROPICAL THE ACTIVITY IS NOTED TO THE S OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS DRAPED THROUGH THE LOW. WITH TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRES TO ITS NE...EXPECT PRESENT SEAS OF 3-5 FT WITH THE LOW TO BUILD TO POSSIBLY UP TO 8 FT SAT AND SUN PRIMARILY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF LOW...AND COULD BE HIGHER IF CONVECTION INCREASES NEAR THE LOW. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO NW BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT THROUGH SAT MORNING AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 30N76W THEN STATIONARY TO NE FLORIDA PRESSES SE. THE COLD FRONT PORTION SHOULD EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO 27N75W BY SAT MORNING...WITH THE STATIONARY PORTION WNW TO THE E CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST...AND FROM FURTHER S FROM 27N65W TO 26N72W BY SUN MORNING WITH THE WEAKENING STATIONARY PORTION NW TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD S INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ARE SUN AND MON ALLOWING FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH OFF E OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL THEN LIFT BACK N TUE AND WED. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NE AT 15 T0 20 KT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TO S TO SW AT 20 KT E OF FRONT. WINDS N OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT SAT EVENING. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROUGH AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVELS IS CREATING NUMEROUS STRONG TSTMS OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE SEA WITH GUSTY WINDS. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE W THROUGH SUN. ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING CAPTURED A BROAD AREA OF E TO SE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE SEA DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A LOW PRES TROUGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRES. AS THE TROUGH PULLS OFF TO THE NW OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HRS...EXPECT THIS AREA OF WINDS TO ALSO SHIFT W. MODELS LIKE THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP A LOW AS IT MOVES NW DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 18N86W BY 72 HRS. HIGHEST SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 8 TO 12 FT IN THE SW PORTION NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA ...AND OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THESE SEAS WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SUN. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY E OF THE AREA ALONG 44W AND SHOULD ENTER THE EASTERN TROPICAL N ATLC LATE SUN INTO MON AND MOVE THROUGH THAT ZONE MON AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED. AS IT DOES...IT WILL ENHANCE NE TO E TRADES SOME. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE