000 AGXX40 KNHC 020729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... AT 02/0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX HAD A CENTRAL PRES OF 1000 MB AND WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 102.4W MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 10 KT. ALEX HAS SINCE DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL MEXICO. OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS AND SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO 9 FT OR LESS IN SE WINDS OF 20 KT OR LESS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 8 FT TODAY...AND CONTINUE SUBSIDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE N WATERS FRI WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER THE WATERS S OF MOBILE BAY TONIGHT. THE GFS SOLUTION CARRIES A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM S OF MOBILE BAY BY SUN EVENING. AT THAT TIME...IT IS THE STRONGEST SOLUTION...EVEN STRONGER THAN THE PARALLEL GFS RUN. THE UKMET CARRIES A WEAKER LOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER S WHILE THE CMC IS JUST BEGINNING TO DEEPEN THE AREA OF LOW PRES THAT IT EVENTUALLY CARRIES SE INTO FL. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND NOGAPS NEVER DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HERE. HPC FAVORS A WEAKER SOLUTION...MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE CONSISTENT ECMWF SOLUTION OR A MUCH WEAKER GFS. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A WEAKER LOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW GETTING TO ABOUT 1012 MB WITH WITH WINDS TO 20 KT AND WITH SEAS MAXING UP TO 7 FT OVERNIGHT SAT NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AT THE SURFACE. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LOWER IN AREAS WITH OIL AT THE SURFACE INHIBITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIND WAVES. ATLC... A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED T0 MOVE SE INTO NW WATERS TODAY. GUIDANCE VARIES DUE TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY SLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT THROUGH FLORIDA. BY SAT...THE MODELS ALSO DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF THE FRONT WAVE DEVELOPING OVER BERMUDA. THE GFS CARRIES THE DEEPEST LOW AND MOST WESTERLY LOW TRACK THROUGH MON. ITS PARALLEL IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH IS WEAKER AND MORE EASTERLY THAN THE GFS...BUT STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER TO CARRY THE COLD FRONT E. THE MODEL CONSENSUS...SLIGHTLY FASTER AND WEAKER THAN THE PARALLEL GFS...IS PREFERRED. CARIBBEAN... THE 0138 UTC ASCAT PASS STILL SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 66W. THIS WIND SURGE WILL SHIFT W WITH THE WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS GENERATES MORE PRECIPITATION AND STRONGER WINDS WITH THIS WAVE THAN THE PARALLEL GFS. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH THE OPERATIONAL GFS HERE THAT ARE ALSO CAUSING THE WW3 TO BRING 14 FT SEAS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE NO OTHER MODEL DOES THIS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS STRONG SOLUTION.. THEREFORE...SCALED DOWN THE WINDS AND SEAS OF THE OPERATIONAL GFS AND ITS WW3. THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 39W AND SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE LESSER ANTILLES BY MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/JA