000 AGXX40 KNHC 011847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT THU JUL 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HURCN ALEX MOVED HAS MOVED INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT ARE BEING REPORTED BY WESTERN GULF BUOY 42019 AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 8 FT ON FRI...AND CONTINUE ON THE SUBSIDING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE N WATERS FRI WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS S OF THE THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPS A 30 KT LOW AND TRACKS IT W ACROSS MS DELTA THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER LOW OF ABOUT 1013 MB TO 1014 MB WITH WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND WITH SEAS MAXING UP TO 7 FT. ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 27N78W WILL RETREAT E THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHER WATERS. GUIDANCE VARIES...AND LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WILL FORECAST A SLOW MOVING FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 28N80W BY EARLY FRI MORNING...FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO 28N80W BY EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN STALLING E TO W ALONG 27N SAT WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT E AND THROUGH BERMUDA MON NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WNW THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ATTM AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI REACHING THE FL STRAITS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ELY 20-25 KT WIND SURGE HAS ITS W BOUNDARY N TO S ALONG 72W ATTM. EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH WIND AND SEAS DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 32W AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 57W TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082 AND GMZ080...TRPCL STORM WARNING W PART EARLY TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON 000 AGXX40 KNHC 011847 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT THU JUL 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HURCN ALEX MOVED HAS MOVED INLAND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE DAY ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND FOR SEAS TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF. SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT ARE BEING REPORTED BY WESTERN GULF BUOY 42019 AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 8 FT ON FRI...AND CONTINUE ON THE SUBSIDING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE N WATERS FRI WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS S OF THE THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPS A 30 KT LOW AND TRACKS IT W ACROSS MS DELTA THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A WEAKER LOW OF ABOUT 1013 MB TO 1014 MB WITH WITH WINDS OF 15-20 KT...AND WITH SEAS MAXING UP TO 7 FT. ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 31N65W TO 27N78W WILL RETREAT E THROUGH FRI MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHER WATERS. GUIDANCE VARIES...AND LIKE PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING WILL FORECAST A SLOW MOVING FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 28N80W BY EARLY FRI MORNING...FROM 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO 28N80W BY EARLY FRI EVENING...THEN STALLING E TO W ALONG 27N SAT WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT E AND THROUGH BERMUDA MON NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WNW THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ATTM AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI REACHING THE FL STRAITS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ELY 20-25 KT WIND SURGE HAS ITS W BOUNDARY N TO S ALONG 72W ATTM. EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH WIND AND SEAS DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 32W AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 57W TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082 AND GMZ080...TRPCL STORM WARNING W PART EARLY TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE