000 AGXX40 KNHC 010648 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... HURCN ALEX MOVED INLAND WITH SEAS 12 TO 20 FT CONTINUING OVER ITS E SEMICIRCLE FROM 22N TO 28N W OF 93W..AND EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 12 FT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TO BELOW 8 FT AROUND SUNSET FRI. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT FRI NIGHT. SE SWELL AT 8 SECONDS AND LONGER IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE GULF WATERS W OF 85W AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TO 7 SECONDS OVER NW GULF WATERS LATE SAT. A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE N WATERS FRI WITH A FRONTAL WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE WATERS S OF THE THE FL PANHANDLE. THE GFS SOLUTION IS MOST AGGRESSIVE AND DEVELOPS A 30 KT LOW AND TRACKS IT W ACROSS MS DELTA THIS WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL BUY INTO A STATIONARY FRONTAL WAVE...AND BUILD ONLY 15 KT EITHER SIDE WITH 6 FT SEA MAX. ATLC... AN E TO W RIDGE FROM 30N55W TO 28N80W. AN UPPER CYCLONE OVER THE BAHAMA CHANNEL THIS MORNING IS DRIFTING W WITH ONLY THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER S FL. RIDGE WILL RETRACT E TODAY ALLOWING A FRONT TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE VARIES...WITH GO WITH AN ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT FROM 31N68W TO 28N80W AROUND SUNRISE FRI...ALONG 31N65W TO THE NW BAHAMAS TO 28N80W SUNSET FRI...AND STALLING E TO W ALONG 27N SAT WITH A SECOND SURGE MOVING THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT E AND THROUGH BERMUDA MON NIGHT. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WNW THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE ATTM AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI REACHING THE FL STRAITS SAT AND SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KT TONIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED ELY 20-25 KT WIND SURGE HAS ITS W BOUNDARY N TO S ALONG 72W ATTM. EXPECT 5 TO 8 FT SEAS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SAT WITH WIND AND SEAS DIMINISHING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN THE NEXT WAVE IS CURRENTLY ALONG 32W AND SHOULD REACH ALONG 55W MON. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082 AND GMZ080...TRPCL STORM WARNING W PART EARLY TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON