000 AGXX40 KNHC 281849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER TROUGH HAS DUG INTO NW GULF AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FOR DEEP CNVTN ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING SSW TOWARDS ALEX. THIS SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN WHAT THE GFS HAD BEEN KEYING ON AND WANTING TO PULL ALEX OR PERIPHERAL PORTIONS TO THE N PAST MANY RUNS. ALTHOUGH A SLOW NNW MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH ALEX PAST 12 HOURS...THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED BEFORE A NW MOTION RESUMES TOMORROW AND POSSIBLY MORE WNW AS IT NEARS THE MEXICAN COAST THU. CURRENT NHC FORECAST REFLECTS THE GFS COMING AROUND TO A MORE REALISTIC INITIALIZATION...AND THUS THE WWIII GUIDANCE WILL NOW BE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. GFDL VERSION OF WWIII TOO FAR NE THROUGH TIME...SO A MERGER OF THE INNER CORE WAVE FIELD WITH THE BROADER WWIII WAVE FIELD LIKELY TO YIELD REASONABLE RESULTS. LONG ARCHING SE TO E FETCH FROM THE NW CARIB TO THE CENTRAL GULF WILL SEND LARGE SWELL TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS AHEAD OF ALEX...WITH MODERATE SLY SWELL EXPECTED TO REACH THE ERN COASTS FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO MOUTH OF MS BY TUE AFTERNOON. ENTIRE GULF W OF 83W WILL SEE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT BY 24-36 HOURS. ATLC W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER SFC TROUGH NEAR 70W...BUT TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NW...AND RIDGE LIFTS SLIGHTLY N. THIS WILL ALLOW TRADES TO RETURN TO THE SEE PORTIONS BY 48 HOURS AND SPREADING W OT THE SE BAHAMAS BY 72 HOURS...WHERE SEAS WILL BEGIN TO REACH 6 FT. VERY FAST MOVING TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO REACH THE TROPICAL ATLC WATERS BY 48 HOURS AND MOVE INTO SE CARIB BY 72 HOURS...WITH 20-25 KT WIND AND SEAS TO 8 FT BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN... STRONG SELY FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIB AND NW CENTRAL TO NEAR 13N73W AS ALEX CONTINUES WITH A RATHER TIGHT INNER CIRCULATION AND BROAD LLVL ENVELOPE. SEAS WERE 10 FT OFF SE COAST OF YUCATAN THIS MORNING...AND 8-10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FAR NW CARIB. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS OVERALL PATTERN OR SEA HEIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH 24-36 HOURS AS ALEX MOVES SLOWLY NNW TONIGHT AND STRENGTHENS...AND GRADIENT REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG FLOW...UP TO 30 KT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL NOT BEGIN TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE W CARIB UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS ...BUT BY THEN THE LLVL WIND SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE COUPLING WITH RIDGING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO BRING MODERATE E TRADES TO E PORTIONS BY 48 HOURS AND FRESHENING BY 72 HOURS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 28N...GMZ080. HURRICANE WARNING N OF 21N...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING