000
AGXX40 KNHC 280623
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
230 AM EDT MON JUN 28 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W...AND 
SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W

TROPICAL STORM ALEX HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND IS CENTERED AT 19.4N 91.3W AT 0300 UTC. ALEX
IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE WNW AND BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUE
EVENING NEAR 22.6N 94.6W. ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO
85W WED EVENING BEFORE MOVING INLAND OVER THE NE MEXICO COAST 
LATE THU. THE GFS BRINGS ALEX FURTHER TO THE N THE THE OFFICIAL 
NHC FORECAST...SO NWW3 AND WINDS FOR THE NW GULF WITH THE GFS
WILL HAVE TO BE IGNORED. THE EUROPEAN MODEL IS MORE IN LINE
WITH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS HAVE
BEEN HEADLINED IN THE NW GULF ZONE S OF 27N AS THE LATEST 
ADVISORY HAS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND RADII N INTO THE AREA

ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 31N 
THROUGH TUE. ELY WINDS 15-20 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA S-SW 
OF THE BAHAMAS/N OF CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE 
TO THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. ALEX THE THE RIDGE TODAY. 
THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS ALEX MOVES E WITH WINDS DECREASING 
TUE. TROUGH IS OVER THE E PORTION OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL 
SHIFT N-NW THROUGH TUE THEN DISSIPATE TUE NIGHT OR EARLY WED. SE 
WINDS TO 20 KT ON NE SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL DECREASE TUE.

STRONG SELY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...20-25 KT.
THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AS T.S ALEX STRENGTHENS AND MOVES 
SLOWLY WNW. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE. THE 
STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THU THEN 
DECREASE SOME LATE THU INTO FRI. TRADES WILL BE IN THE 15-20 KT 
RANGE E OF 75W...OCCASIONALLY TO 25 KT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THE WINDS WILL SPREAD W TO AROUND 80W N OF 11N BY WED.
 
WARNINGS...
ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 19N...GMZ082.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER DGS